PriceSCAN Blog

Big Plasmas, Big Price Drops

Electronics | Jul 2, 09

Those looking for economic “green shoots” in retail electronics pricing won’t find them in the market for large plasma televisions.
This week PriceSCAN’s Plasma - 1080p - 50 Inch Index fell 6%, as noted in our press release of earlier today. This decline comes at the end of the first half of 2009, a period which saw a fair amount of stability and even periods of price increases for big plasmas (to be sure, the preceding holiday and post-holiday seasons did feature some sharp plasma price retreats – see “Plasma Prices Taken Down With Holiday Decorations” and “Collapsing Big-Screen Plasma Prices A Valentine’s Gift To Consumers”). This fall comes shortly after deterioration in LCD pricing (”For LCD Sets, Lower Resolution Means Faster Price Drop”) and would seem to throw a bit of cold water on hopes for firmer consumer tech pricing.
In fairness, some 50” 1080p plasmas have been declining in price for weeks, including the most popular one on PriceSCAN, Panasonic’s TC-P50G10 VIERA. The lowest vendor price on this site for this model was at $2,000 the middle of March, but has since dropped about 35% so that it now may be had for less that $1,300.

Time Period: 3/16/2009 through 6/29/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

This recent decline in larger plasma prices may indicate retailers feel compelled to cut prices as consumer confidence fades. Plasma prices are also falling in the wake of the switch to digital transmission, so perhaps some demand associated with the lead-up to that transition has now been removed from the marketplace.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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AMD Quad-Core Prices Rally From Early 2009 Swoon

Computers | Jun 10, 09

It seems AMD’s Quad-Core line possesses power of both the processing and pricing kinds.
In what might be an indication of some recovery in the processor arena, the PriceSCAN AMD Quad-Core Index has erased much of its seven percent Q1 2009 decline, rallying some 5% in the second quarter (see our press release of earlier today). We’ve taken note of recent signs of price weakness in the processor market (“Processor Price Drop Striking At Core Of Tech Recovery") so the fact that demand is strong enough to allow a bottoming in the pricing of a line of state-of-the-art chips is a welcome development. It may also be that production costs have firmed so as to make further price cuts quite difficult for manufacturers and hence retailers, encouraging an effort to hold the line on pricing. Of course this would be problematic without sufficient support from buyers
To be sure, this is not a complete retracing of the first quarter swan dive, but a reversal of this magnitude does inform against the scenario of precipitous tech deflation. And, in this economy, there are not a lot of players in the tech market complaining of a surfeit of good news.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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State Of The Art Digital Camera Prices Show Staying Power

Digital Cameras & Camcorders | Jun 5, 09

Twelve megapixel digital camera prices have held fairly firm throughout the last few months, in contrast to the markdowns we’ve see for other cutting-edge consumer tech goods.
To elaborate on our press release this week, PriceSCAN’s 12 Megapixel Digital Camera Index dropped only about 1% since October of last year. That compares with about a 20% decline in our 8 Megapixel Digital Camera Index during a comparable, relatively early period in that level of resolution’s life cycle, from October 2005 to May 2006.
Price weakness in state of the art technologies has been a recent theme in the marketplace (see “Processor Price Drop Striking At Core Of Tech Recovery?”, “Sony’s LCD Premium Gets Discounted” and “Automotive GPS Prices Driven Down”). So why the recent out-performance of 12 megapixel cameras?
Perhaps in comparison to the introductory period of 8 megapixel cameras, the retail market anticipates more gradual innovation, supporting early price stability. Additionally, 12 megapixel cameras may have been released with thinner retail margins then in the initial 8 megapixel period, an immediate discount as opposed to one spread over months. And as I noted in our release, maintaining any pricing requires underlying demand, so the introductory-period price stability of these state of the art cameras might be providing a “higher-resolution picture of a small but intriguingly green shoot.”
To get a sense of the firmness of 12 megapixel prices, consider the Canon EOS Digital Rebel XSi with EF-S 18-55mm IS Lens, currently the most popular such camera on our site and one whose early release pre-dates our index by several months. After an initial drop in early 2008, the lowest price offered by vendors on this site has actually rallied from a low of about $525 to around $650 over the last few months.
Time Period: 2/4/2008 through 6/1/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

There are those who fear significant deflation in the consumer tech sector. Perhaps the digital camera market may be giving us an early picture of some hope for the retail electronics market.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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For LCD Sets, Lower Resolution Means Faster Price Drop

Electronics | May 28, 09

We’re seeing a resumption of the decline of LCD television prices, with the fall in 720p prices outstripping that of 1080p sets.
I’ve noted recently that deterioration in LCD pricing has been continuing (see “Sony’s LCD Premium Gets Discounted”) and in a recent press release we highlighted particularly significant drops in the PriceSCAN 40–42 Inch LCD Television 720p and 1080p Indices. In the midst of the recession, LCD demand and any recent inventory drawdown appear insufficient to support even the depressed prices we saw early in the year.
It’s worth taking note of the fact that, while in the first half of May the 1080p index saw a not inconsiderable drop of 3.7%, the 720p index fell almost twice as much, a decline of 7%. The difference may reflect the older vintage’s approaching obsolescence.
Yet even the most advanced and popular sets are hardly immune from severe discounting. One can see this quite clearly by looking at the price action of the Sony KDL-40V4100 BRAVIA V series LCD TV, currently the most sought-after 40-42 inch LCD on PriceSCAN. The lowest price offered by vendors on this site has fallen from about a grand to under $900 in the last few weeks; to put this in perspective, this set went for no less than $1,300 at the end of last April.

Time Period: 4/28/2008 through 5/18/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

As the decline in our higher resolution 1080p index illustrates, when an economy is this week, “state of the art” status only goes so far in insulating a technology from price erosion.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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Automotive GPS Prices Driven Down

Electronics | May 18, 09

We’ve recently seen further deterioration in GPS pricing, continuing a trend begun earlier in the year.
At the end of January I commented on the fizzling of a brief New Year’s rally in GPS prices (“GPS Can't Navigate To Higher Prices”), notably in the PriceSSCAN Automotive GPS with Voice Recognition Index. Now we’re seeing further deterioration in our Automotive GPS – Widescreen with Text to Speech Index. In a press release last week we took note of that measure’s recent 4.9% drop, driving the index to an all-time low.
Indeed, the most popular GPS unit on this site, the Garmin Nuvi 855 (which is a widescreen text to speech model) was going for no less than $460 back in the middle of February, and now may be had for under $310, a drop of nearly a third.

Time Period: 2/16/2009 through 5/11/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

It’s no secret that auto sales are weak, and with the economy sagging it seems a recently stronger oil market has not been sufficient to put a floor under retail GPS prices (GPS units can save drivers money by allowing them to avoid wasting gas as they drive around lost or take unnecessarily long paths to their destinations). With the start of the summer driving season now upon us, we’ll see whether budget-challenged consumers choose to avail themselves of the gas-saving potential of GPS, assuming they can afford the up-front costs of doing so.
Sometimes you have to spend money to save it.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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Sony’s LCD Premium Gets Discounted

Electronics | May 8, 09

In a market where the prices of larger LCD televisions have been falling, it seems of late that Sony’s prices have been falling a bit faster than its lower-end rivals.
Sony has traditionally been regarded as a premium flat-screen television maker, commanding a higher price reflecting that status. But as noted in our recent press release, the Sony 50”+ LCD sets in the PriceSCAN LCD 50+ Index have fallen 10% since the beginning of the year, contributing to an overall 7% index during this period (by comparison, the index dropped only 6% in all of 2008).
To be sure, lower-end brands also contributed to the decline; the Sharp sets in our index fell 7%, and Samsung’s included models were off by 2%. Yet the fact that this price decline is being led by a higher-end brand may tell us something about the current state of the home electronics market, demonstrating increased consumer price sensitivity as cash-strapped buyers are unwilling or unable to pay up for premium names in an economic contraction,
Just one example: the 52-inch Sony KDL-52V5100 BRAVIA V, currently the most popular 50”+ Sony LCD television on this site, was going for at least two grand at the end of March, while currently merchants on PriceSCAN.com are offering it for less than $1,700.

Time Period: 3/23/2009 through 5/4/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

It’s worth noting that our LCD 50+ Index has recovered a bit in the last few weeks, rising around 5% since the middle of March. A further rally may take some of the pressure off higher end brands. But if the economy continues to sag, we may see further contraction in the spread between premium and lower-end brands, as consumers’ ability to spend for quality (real or perceived) runs into the harsh reality of a shrinking budget.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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Processor Price Drop Striking At Core Of Tech Recovery?

Computers | Apr 27, 09

A recent resumption of a slide in the pricing of a key microprocessor could indicate that recovery in the market for technology goods is still some time off.
As we note in today’s press release, PriceSCAN’s Intel Core 2 Quad Index dropped 3% last week, ending a period of relative stability that began in early February following a precipitous 13% fall in January. As a critical component of many personal computers, the Core 2 Quad’s price deterioration may reflect further weakening in the PC market.
To be sure, there are non-macroeconomic reasons why the market for PCs and the chips that make them tick could be less than animated. Anticipation of the new version of Windows could prompt buyers to put off purchases, and there’s been no recent “killer app” demanding markedly higher processing power. Given this backdrop, in the current economic environment, it’s hard to imagine a consumer worried about his or her job and house value feeling a burning need to run out and buy a machine with a somewhat more advanced chip set.
We’ve been observing some signs of technology price stabilization recently (see “Camcorders Now Featuring Both Image And Price Stabilization,” “A Wireless Route To Recovery?” and “A Blu-ray Of Light In The Retail Darkness?”). but weakness in some digital camera prices (“Some Digital Camera Prices Drop As Other Retail Tech Pricing Hints At Recovery”) and now in a key processor could be telling us that a true firming in the retail tech space will be slow and sporadic in its emergence.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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Some Digital Camera Prices Drop As Other Retail Tech Hints At Recovery

Digital Cameras & Camcorders | Apr 20, 09

The prices of higher-resolution digital cameras are taking a dive even as other consumer technology goods stabilize or even rally.
In the past few weeks we’ve taken note of signs of recovery in the pricing of some key consumer tech goods (“Camcorders Now Featuring Both Image And Price Stabilization,” “A Wireless Route To Recovery?” and “A Blu-ray Of Light In The Retail Darkness?”). The latest such glimmer of stabilization is to be found in PriceSCAN’s 20-29 inch LCD Index, which we’ve pointed out has recently staged an impressive rally.
However, our latest press release dropped a fly in this seemingly improving ointment, as we pointed out that the first half of April has seen a five percent decline in our PriceSCAN 12 Megapixel Digital Camera Index. Such a reversal of earlier (albeit modest) price increases signals that whatever support from rising consumer demand and lower inventories exists is as yet incapable of stabilizing the prices of high resolution digital cameras.
Nevertheless, some of the most popular 12 megpixel or higher resolution models are still sustaining early 2009 price increases. Consider that the Canon EOS Digital Rebel XSi with EF-S 18-55mm IS Lens, currently the most sought-after non-SLR 12 megapixel model on PriceSCAN (and the second most popular camera overall) has seen it’s lowest offered price on this site rise from about $520 to around $640 over the last three months.

Time Period: 2/4/2008 through 4/13/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

And what of the most popular camera on PriceSCAN? That would be the 12.3 megapixel Nikon D90 Digital SLR Camera with Nikon 18-105mm VR Lens, whose lowest vendor ask on our site has crept up a little less than 5% since around the beginning of the year.

Time Period: 9/15/2008 through 4/13/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

If economic weakness persists, we may come to view price breakdowns like the one in our 12 megapixel index as indications that the “green shoots” of recovery some have pointed to recently are either disturbingly sepia in hue or else frustratingly slow to grow. Still, we’ve lately seen some tech prices resisting the deflationary pull downward; those hoping for a recovery will be looking for the up arrows to outnumber the down.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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Camcorders Now Featuring Both Image And Price Stabilization

Digital Cameras & Camcorders | Apr 2, 09

Recent price action in the market for digital camcorders offers some signs of recovery in consumer electronics.
In a press release this week we noted a sharp decrease in rate of decline of our Digital Camcorder – HD Index. That index has fallen only 2% in the first quarter of 2009, following an 8% drop through the holiday shopping period. This followed our noting earlier this month that PriceSCAN’s Digital Camcorder – DVD Index actually increased 2.3% in the third week of March, reducing that index’s 2009 drop to 4%
An example of stronger pricing can be found in the Sony HDR-UX20 HD Handycam Camcorder, currently the most popular DVD camcorder on PriceSCAN. The lowest vendor price for this model has risen from about $525 at the beginning of the year to just under $600 now.

Time Period: 2/11/2008 through 3/23/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

These hints of firming prices add to other anecdotal evidence of price strength in consumer electronics, including wireless routers and Blu-ray players (see “A Wireless Route To Recovery?” and “A Blu-ray Of Light In The Retail Darkness?”). I’ve noted before that these goods may make staying in more enjoyable for budget-conscious consumers choosing to “cocoon”. Reduced inventories may be supporting retail pricing as well. To the extent recent price stabilization indicates consumers are finding any reason to buy (which could eventually motivate retailers to re-stock depleted shelves) this data supports hopes that tech could help catalyze economic recovery.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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A Wireless Route To Recovery?

Computers | Mar 26, 09

It would be a stretch to call this a signal of economic stabilization, but a recent firming in wireless prices can’t be a bad thing for tech retail.
We noted in a press release last week that we observed a 2.98% rise in the PriceSCAN Wireless Router 802.11g Index in the second week of March. This has resulted in a 4% rise since a low in late February. The price action may make sense in the context of a soft economy, since these routers leverage existing computers in the home, and thus represent a cheap way for the financially constrained consumer to make “cocooning” more palatable. (we’ve seen a few other examples of price gains for relatively inexpensive electronics that enhance the stay-at-home experience: see for example “A Blu-ray Of Light In The Retail Darkness?”).
You get a sense of how inexpensive wireless routers are these days when you consider that even a more advance N-speed model like the Linksys Wireless-N Gigabit Router WRT310N, currently the most popular such device on this site, now goes for less than a C-note. It would have run you at least $120 in late Feb ’08, though like the G-standard models, it’s price has recently firmed; the lowest price on the Linksys Wireless-N has risen over 5% in the last few weeks.

Time Period: 2/18/2008 through 3/23/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Since routers could play a role in the internet infrastructure expansion contemplated under the stimulus package, it’s not inconceivable this fiscal spending may provide some support for the pricing of these devices. For now, any sign of strength in tech is clearly welcome.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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