PriceSCAN Blog

June 10, 2009

AMD Quad-Core Prices Rally From Early 2009 Swoon

Computers | Jun 10, 09

It seems AMD’s Quad-Core line possesses power of both the processing and pricing kinds.
In what might be an indication of some recovery in the processor arena, the PriceSCAN AMD Quad-Core Index has erased much of its seven percent Q1 2009 decline, rallying some 5% in the second quarter (see our press release of earlier today). We’ve taken note of recent signs of price weakness in the processor market (“Processor Price Drop Striking At Core Of Tech Recovery") so the fact that demand is strong enough to allow a bottoming in the pricing of a line of state-of-the-art chips is a welcome development. It may also be that production costs have firmed so as to make further price cuts quite difficult for manufacturers and hence retailers, encouraging an effort to hold the line on pricing. Of course this would be problematic without sufficient support from buyers
To be sure, this is not a complete retracing of the first quarter swan dive, but a reversal of this magnitude does inform against the scenario of precipitous tech deflation. And, in this economy, there are not a lot of players in the tech market complaining of a surfeit of good news.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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April 27, 2009

Processor Price Drop Striking At Core Of Tech Recovery?

Computers | Apr 27, 09

A recent resumption of a slide in the pricing of a key microprocessor could indicate that recovery in the market for technology goods is still some time off.
As we note in today’s press release, PriceSCAN’s Intel Core 2 Quad Index dropped 3% last week, ending a period of relative stability that began in early February following a precipitous 13% fall in January. As a critical component of many personal computers, the Core 2 Quad’s price deterioration may reflect further weakening in the PC market.
To be sure, there are non-macroeconomic reasons why the market for PCs and the chips that make them tick could be less than animated. Anticipation of the new version of Windows could prompt buyers to put off purchases, and there’s been no recent “killer app” demanding markedly higher processing power. Given this backdrop, in the current economic environment, it’s hard to imagine a consumer worried about his or her job and house value feeling a burning need to run out and buy a machine with a somewhat more advanced chip set.
We’ve been observing some signs of technology price stabilization recently (see “Camcorders Now Featuring Both Image And Price Stabilization,” “A Wireless Route To Recovery?” and “A Blu-ray Of Light In The Retail Darkness?”). but weakness in some digital camera prices (“Some Digital Camera Prices Drop As Other Retail Tech Pricing Hints At Recovery”) and now in a key processor could be telling us that a true firming in the retail tech space will be slow and sporadic in its emergence.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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March 26, 2009

A Wireless Route To Recovery?

Computers | Mar 26, 09

It would be a stretch to call this a signal of economic stabilization, but a recent firming in wireless prices can’t be a bad thing for tech retail.
We noted in a press release last week that we observed a 2.98% rise in the PriceSCAN Wireless Router 802.11g Index in the second week of March. This has resulted in a 4% rise since a low in late February. The price action may make sense in the context of a soft economy, since these routers leverage existing computers in the home, and thus represent a cheap way for the financially constrained consumer to make “cocooning” more palatable. (we’ve seen a few other examples of price gains for relatively inexpensive electronics that enhance the stay-at-home experience: see for example “A Blu-ray Of Light In The Retail Darkness?”).
You get a sense of how inexpensive wireless routers are these days when you consider that even a more advance N-speed model like the Linksys Wireless-N Gigabit Router WRT310N, currently the most popular such device on this site, now goes for less than a C-note. It would have run you at least $120 in late Feb ’08, though like the G-standard models, it’s price has recently firmed; the lowest price on the Linksys Wireless-N has risen over 5% in the last few weeks.

Time Period: 2/18/2008 through 3/23/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Since routers could play a role in the internet infrastructure expansion contemplated under the stimulus package, it’s not inconceivable this fiscal spending may provide some support for the pricing of these devices. For now, any sign of strength in tech is clearly welcome.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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March 3, 2009

Ultra-Light Netbooks Drop To Ultra-Low Prices

Computers | Mar 3, 09

It appears the prices of netbook computers are shrinking along with the machines themselves.
Last July I took note of a pronounced downward trend in netbook pricing (see “Letting The “Air” Out Of Ultralight Notebook Prices”), but recently the netbook market has plumbed previously unheard-of price lows. Case in point, the HP Mini 1010NR, currently the most popular netbook on PriceSCAN, with an 8.9 inch display, an Intel Atom 1.60 GHz processor, 0.5GB RAM, an 8 GB solid state drive and 802.11g Wi-Fi. Just three weeks ago it was offered by vendors on this site for no less than $340, and now may be had for under $290.

Time Period: 2/2/2009 through 2/23/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Similarly, consider the runner up on this site in terms of popularity, Acer’s Aspire One Netbook AOA110-1588, with the same processor and display size as the HP Mini, as well as 0.5GB RAM, 8 GB solid state drive and 802.11g Wi-Fi. Priced by merchants on PriceSCAN for at least $295 in the last week of December ’08, it’s now offered for less than $240.

Time Period: 12/22/2008 through 2/23/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

It seems overall economic weakness and fierce competition (perhaps even from other highly compact computing technologies, including smartphones) are combining to crush netbook prices. At these levels, a netbook could become almost an impulse buy, even in a recession.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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December 21, 2008

AMD Chips In Holiday Price Dip

Computers | Dec 21, 08

The prices of key AMD processors dropped sharply in the beginning of December, perhaps indicating the softness of the computer market and the competitive environment AMD finds itself in as it faces off with archrival Intel.
As highlighted in our recent press release, the first week of this month alone saw a 10% decline in the PriceSCAN AMD Dual Core Index, while PriceSCAN’s AMD Quad Core Index dropped fell almost 5%. Clearly, weak computer sales are probably pressuring these critical components of AMD’s processor line as they experience continued price drops (see “Recent Price Drops in AMD Processors, Blu-ray Players May Auger Retail Weakness”). And with AMD locked in a fierce struggle with Intel for primacy in the multiple core processor market, slackening demand can only lead to further price cuts.
If both retail and corporate computer sales continue deteriorating, look for further chip price cuts in 2009.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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November 24, 2008

Turn Your iPhone Into The Ultimate Shopping Weapon

About | Nov 24, 08

PriceSCAN has just been optimized for the iPhone, allowing you to instantly compare prices while shopping in physical stores, while on the road, or anytime you’re not in front of your PC.
When you use your iPhone (or iPod touch) to surf PriceSCAN’s website you’ll be instantly taken to a simplified interface with an easy to use search bar. Just type the name of the item for which you wish to generate a price comparison, click “search”, and PriceSCAN will display a comparison of vendor prices for that item, along with a link to additional product information. And of course you can still access features like vendor ratings, PriceSCAN indices and PriceTrend graphs by clicking the “Go To Full Site” link at the bottom of each iPhone-optimized page.
Now, when you’re shopping in a brick and mortar store, you can pull up a price comparison of whatever you’re shopping for - say a flat-screen television or digital camera. If you find lower prices online, you can use that data to negotiate with the salesperson right on the spot. If you don’t like the price you’re offered, you can always just go ahead and buy online, straight from your iPhone. This simple feature puts incredible power literally in your hands just as the holidays arrive and many shoppers find their budgets severely pinched.
So when that smooth-talking sales assistant tries to tell you you’re getting just as good a deal as you would online, whip out your iPhone, punch up PriceSCAN and give him or her a stark reminder of just what a buyer’s market we’re living in.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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October 2, 2008

Turning Your Computer Into A High-Def Digital Television With The AverMedia Volar

Electronics | Oct 2, 08

This coming February’s government-mandated switch to digital broadcast was supposed to boost television sales, but with economic growth lately going the way of the dodo, many consumers may look for alternatives.
One interesting option is AverMedia’s AVerTV HD Volar USB 2.0 HDTV Tuner. This portable device, slightly larger than some USB flash drives, is billed as a “plug and play” portable ATSC digital tuner and is offered by vendors on PriceSCAN for under $50. It simply inserts into one of your computer’s USB slots. With the installation of the accompanying AverTV software and the use of a digital antenna (a small indoor one is included) your PC becomes a television, and, in the case of those with HD LCD screens, a high-def TV at that (up to 1080i/720p). The software includes a recording feature for video capture, and is Windows Vista Premium certificated/Windows XP MCE compliant. The tuner, antenna and cables are compact enough to fit in a laptop case, making the Volar a portable solution for road warriors.
I offer the usual caution about digital signals: they are notoriously directional and subject to interference, and depending on where you are and the building you’re in, this could be an issue.
But with budgets stretched to the breaking point and broadcast digital offering a high-def alternative to cable (see “Is Digital Broadcast Television A Cheap Way To Unplug Basic Cable?”) many consumers may want explore low-cost alternatives allowing them to deal with digital television in HD style while leveraging the value of their PC. Hey, with Congress talking about using your money to buy bank assets for more than anyone else will pay, isn’t t nice to see someone trying to maximize the value of your investment?

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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July 22, 2008

Letting The "Air" Out Of Ultralight Notebook Prices

Computers | Jul 22, 08

Just thought I’d note some recent notebook computer price drops, including that of the vaunted MacBook Air.
Apple’s ultrathin laptop was going for $1,800 when I first commented on its sleek if feature-limited design back in February (see “The Air Not There”). The MacBook Air may now be purchased from vendors on PriceSCAN for just over $1,600, a drop of over 10% in six months (note also that the Apple Store is selling a refurbished model for $1,499).
Time Period: 4/14/2008 through 7/14/2008
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

The downward price pressure on this popular model could be simply due to the usual slow march toward obsolescence, but another factor could be the introduction of even lighter travel-oriented machines, including so-called “netbooks”. One example is the Asus Eee, priced a bit shy of $400. It’s a 2 lb Linux machine with a 900MHz Celeron M processor, 512MB RAM, 4.0GB HD, webcam, modem, 100 BT & 802.11g and a compact 7.0 inch WXGA Display. Of course, at one pound heavier the Air is a considerably more serious machine, with a 1.60GHz Core 2 Duo Mobile, 2048MB RAM, 80.0GB HD, , and a far larger 13.3 inch WXGA Display (it also has a webcam, modem, and 1000 BT & 802.11agn). However, without a DVD drive and the ability to swap batteries (except by Apple) it’s not clear the Air is hefty enough to serve as a principal computer. And if what’s desired is a mobile device to keep you in touch and able to access key documents away from the mothership, then, for many, a lighter, cheaper netbook like the Asus may make sense, in turn driving down the price of more feature-full lightweights.
As a wider spectrum of mobile computing devices emerges (including of course the iPhone and iPod touch) we may see a more finely gradated cost and feature choice set, unless and until the market determines the ultimate mobile computing machine.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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February 11, 2008

The Air Not There

Computers | Feb 11, 08

Failing to find her childhood home on returning to Oakland, Gertrude Stein remarked "There is no 'there' there", and perhaps I'm just as lost given my difficulty locating the "there" in the new MacBook Air.
After all, commentators as esteemed as the Times' David Pogue and the Journal's Walter S. Mossberg have described handling the three-pound, 3/4" thick aluminum laptop as so satisfying a sensory experience that I was reminded of Woody Allen fondling that futuristic joy-inducing silver orb in his film "Sleeper". And in addition to such Apple coolness, the MacBook Air does feature a 13.3 inch screen, large for an ultralight notebook.
But for eighteen hundred bucks the Air delivers a relatively small 80 GB hard drive and just one USB port (the only other external connections are for headphones and an external monitor, so perhaps "Air" could be said to stand for air-gap). You can buy an external USB hub or Ethernet connection, but externals kind of defeat the point of the Air's almost hermetically-sealed elegance. And sealed is the operative word, as the battery is not meant to be removed by the user, and thus cannot be swapped for a spare on the road. When the battery dies, you'll have to pay Cupertino to replace it for you. No CD/DVD drive makes backing up data or loading programs from those media an issue, and of course without carrying an external drive you won't be playing DVD movies at 18,000 feet.
Apple offers solutions to these issues that are, well, quintessentially Apple. Download those movies from the company's store via Wi-Fi (which the Air does have) and if you need to get a tune out of the Air, dump it on an iPod. If you really must install software from a CD or DVD, the Air is sold with Remote Disk, a program which allows the machine to wirelessly access another Mac or PC's CD/DVD drive and use it as an external peripheral.
It's worth noting that Apple is offering a more advanced model with a feature road warriors may appreciate: a flash memory-based 64 GB solid state drive whose lack of a spinning disk may increase durability However, this version (with a 1.8 GHz CPU as opposed to the standard 1.6 GHz model) will run you a rather steep $3,100.
So perhaps it's just me, but all this seems like a fairly expensive way to eschew basic features of power management, data back-up, media/program access and connectivity which I find very useful when traveling. Maybe the Air can work on short trips for those with relatively light computing needs, a high degree of comfort with Apple-dependence (just to change the battery?) and/or a willingness to rely on another computer as the mother-ship. Sure, respectable people may touch this machine with a degree of ardor that borders on the obscene, but for now, I'll continue to insist on the ability to put disks in my laptop - and to be able to take the battery out, all by myself. Like Woody in Sleeper, I think that, no matter the tactile appeal of a machine, there are some things human beings should be able to do for themselves.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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April 12, 2007

Vista And The Vox Populi

Computers | Apr 12, 07

When it comes to its new operating system, it seems Microsoft just isn't feeling the love. A recent Harris Poll showed that the number of consumers intending to wait to purchase Windows Vista increased to 67% last month, from 31% in December 2006.

Why the tepid level of enthusiasm? A plethora of issues confront Redmond's new release, including driver and legacy application compatibility, hardware requirements for upgrade ("So I'll Take Vista, And Guess I'll Need More RAM, And Some New Peripherals – Aw, Just Give Me A New System…"), and what some call a lack of "Wow!" factor in Vista's feature set. This complex of factors may have something to do with the notably early and sharp price drop in the top of the line Vista Ultimate that I noted some weeks ago ("Vista Achieves Touted "Wow" Effect, Albeit Through Massive Price Drop"). Slower Vista acceptance is tough news for PC makers as well, since a new OS has traditionally been a key driver in promoting the purchase of new hardware. We're seeing some fairly aggressive markdowns in system prices right now, for both XP and Vista-equipped machines. Thus, what may be a challenging environment for Gates & Co.'s new offering could give consumers a break on notebook and desktop purchases as we move into the traditional Mother's Day/Father's Day/Graduation gift-giving period.
Just remember to warn Mom, Dad or the kid that the first Vista service pack hasn't been released yet.

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February 26, 2007

Vista Achieves Touted "Wow" Effect, Albeit Through Massive Price Drop

Computers | Feb 26, 07

The top of the line version of Microsoft's new operating system is starting off life with a fall in price best described as "rock-like". While sooner or later this decline should abate, it's an open question whether this species of Vista has yet found even a temporary bottom.

The OS in question is the "full" DVD version of Microsoft Windows Vista Ultimate, currently the most popular operating system on PriceSCAN.com. Just following the Vista launch five weeks ago it was going for at least $425, and now may be had for just shy of $340, a decline of some 20% from the introductory price (see graph below).

Time Period: 1/15/2007 through 2/19/2007
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Interestingly, the price of the full DVD version of Microsoft Windows Vista Home Premium has shown no such sharp decline, with the lowest vendor price on PriceSCAN falling only about 2% over the last month.
In any event, if you need Vista's business applications but also want the media center capabilities of Home Premium, the Ultimate version will get you there. And, as a reward for waiting the past few weeks to make your purchase, you can now do so at a substantial discount to the intro price. Just goes to show that when it comes to new products, it sometimes pays to wait, even for a very short period of time.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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February 5, 2007

"So I'll Take Vista, And Guess I'll Need More RAM, And Some New Peripherals – Aw, Just Give Me A New System…"

Computers | Feb 5, 07

Like global warming, Microsoft Vista took a long time to arrive, but we're finally feeling its impact. Now it's time to figure out the pros and cons, and how best to deal with it.

Gates and Co.'s new operating system has some serious advantages. There's no question the Aero interface is pretty. Windows are displayed in 3-D perspective and sport translucent borders so you can more easily shuffle through them. Users who envy the cool aspects of OS X will find features to cheer, like Explorer's fully integrated search bar and thumbnails with live miniatures of windows. Critics have praised the Photo Gallery's organization and editing features, as well as easier networking.
But many of those same critics have pointed out that drivers for older peripherals are hard to come by (especially for the 64-bit version). Unsurprisingly, that cool interface comes at a price, taxing memory and processor alike. Indeed, requirements for the Premium version of Vista (which includes Aero) are significantly higher than the minimal requirements necessary for a machine to be labeled "Vista Capable". According to Microsoft, that lower standard only requires an 800 Mhz processor, 512 MB of memory and a DirectX 9 capable graphics processor. But to run Premium, the bare minimum requirements include 1 GB of RAM (and reports are you'll need a fair bit more to run many applications smoothly), 1 GHz 32-bit (x86) or 64-bit (x64) processor, DirectX 9 support with a WDDM driver, 128 GB of graphics memory, Pixel Shredder 2.0, 32 bits per pixel, 15 GB of free space on a 40 GB hard drive, a DVD-ROM drive and of course the requisite audio output and internet access.
All this may be good news for hardware manufacturers, as users of less advanced systems find their machines choke on Redmond's new offering and feel compelled to upgrade. While increased demand may tend to at least stabilize hardware prices, this space has become intensely competitive, and many firms may see this as an opportunity to grab market share even if they have to forgo some per unit revenue. So if your old system can't be made to embrace Redmond's new Vista, be sure to compare prices here before buying, as you may find some outstanding deals in the ensuing upgrade melee.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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January 24, 2007

Lexar For Less

Computers | Jan 24, 07

You now have one less excuse for not backing up your data or having extra digital film. In the last few days we've seen a sharp drop in the price of Lexar JumpDrives and SD memory cards.

Both the Lexar 1GB USB JumpDrive and the Lexar 2GB USB JumpDrive saw drops of around 30% in their lowest vendor prices on this site, from around $50 and $75 to under $35 and $50, respectively.

Lexar Media 2GB USB 2.0 Jump Drive Lightning 100x
Time Period: 7/4/2005 through 1/15/2007
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Similarly, we've seen about a 25% decline in the lowest merchant-offered prices of the Lexar Media 1GB Secure Digital Card and the Lexar Media 2GB Secure Digital Card from approximately $40 and $60 to under $30 and just over $45, respectively.
So the next time your hard drive crashes or you can't take that extra photo for lack of memory, don't blame the cost of storage.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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January 5, 2007

Do People Just Love SanDisk Flash Memory Best?

Computers | Jan 5, 07

Recent price jumps on SanDisk flash memory products have increased their already significant premium over seemingly equivalent products from Kingston.

The last week of December witnessed PriceSCAN.com listed vendors raising the price of key SanDisk flash products appreciably, while Kingston prices were either raised far less or, in some cases, sharply lowered. For example, merchants raised the price of SanDisk's 1 GB CompactFlash Card by an average of 6.5%, versus an average decline of 7% in the offered price of the similar Kingston 1 GB CompactFlash 33x Card. Similarly, the mean price of the SanDisk 1 GB Cruzer U3 USB Flash Drive shot up by an eye-popping 31% while the average price of Kingston's 1 GB Data Traveler USB 2.0 Flash Drive rose by only .02%. A similar pattern can be seen across much of the flash product lines of these firms.
What this means for SanDisk, Kingston, and the flash memory market is unclear. In a rational market, a persistent, sustainable price difference would argue for an actual difference in quality. If Kingston's devices are truly the functional equivalents of SanDisk's, one would expect the pricing of these two lines to converge. In an environment of strong demand, that could mean the rise in SanDisk pricing serving as a signal to Kingston and others, resulting in a general price hike. Of course, absent that firm demand, the new SanDisk pricing might not hold.

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August 31, 2006

Windows Vista: Meet The New Price, Same As The Old Price

Computers | Aug 31, 06

Even a bit higher, actually. If a pre-order page that appeared on Amazon is to be believed, Vista, the latest version of Windows, is slated to be released January 30 of next year, at price levels at or exceeding those of the current release. So assuming this information is accurate, what does this tell us about Redmond's view of its competitive position?

It's been almost five years since the release of XP, and during that time a lot has happened. The development of Vista has been a tale of pushed-back launch dates, redesigns and struggles with backwards-compatibility. And it's not like the current version of Windows has inspired universal acclaim and appreciation (when was the last time the guy in the cubicle next to you cried out "God, I love Windows!" sans irony?). Meanwhile, an iPod-invigorated Apple offers Intel-based machines capable of running Mac OS, Windows and Linux, while ultra-cheap Linux-loaded laptops are available from the likes of Wal-Mart.
Microsoft's response, as revealed by this pricing, is nothing less than the full, heartfelt yawn of a monopolist. The above so-called competitive threats have put nary a dent in Microsoft's stranglehold on the desktop OS market, and despite oft-blogged doubts regarding Vista (the Aero interface is said to consume processor power with gusto), Redmond seems convinced the world will simply swallow its latest offering with all the docility of grazing sheep. Given consumer behavior up to the present, it's not like Redmond's assumption lacks foundation.
Now if only they'd offer an Aero-enhanced version of "Clippy"...

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July 31, 2006

Intel Cuts AMD To Its (Dual) Core

Computers | Jul 31, 06

Prior to Intel's Core 2 Duo launch, the chipmaker dropped prices for many of its processors, an understandable move as the market got wind of a new and superior technology in the offing (see "Buy One Core, Get Another Half Off..."). Inevitably, the one-two punch of discounts on existing products and the anticipation of more advanced processors put significant pressure on Intel competitor AMD. Now, in the wake of the Core 2 Duo's actual launch, AMD has sharply cut prices across its Athlon 64 X2 line, and we're even seeing price drops for advanced FX processors.

The X2 cuts are nicely illustrated by this week's violent drop in the PriceSCAN.com Athlon 64 X2 Processor Index, which fell 25% last week. More downside action may be in the offing, as wholesale cuts said to be up to 55%, pass through to the market. In addition, in recent weeks even the FX line has seen markdowns. Consider the Athlon 64 FX 60 Dual Core, whose lowest vendor price on PriceSCAN has dropped by some 20% since the beginning of the summer (see below).

Time Period: 2/6/2006 through 7/24/2006
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

More impressively, this site's lowest price on the recently released, top of the line Athlon 64 FX 62 Dual Core just dropped from slightly over a grand last week to under $860 today.
Blog buzz on the Core 2 Duo's benchmark performance against comparable Athlons is very strong, and it appears AMD is trying to hang on to its hard-won market share by slashing prices. Coming weeks should tell us what premium today's market places on performance.

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July 11, 2006

Linux And Tiger And Leopard – Oh My!

Computers | Jul 11, 06

So bloggers are having a field day with the news that Apple will soon release Leopard, its latest operating system. That makes four Mac OS launches since the 2001 introduction of Microsoft's Windows XP. Meanwhile, Redmond's release of Vista (or Longhorn, for those who remember the early days of its long, torturous development) is now expected in early 2007.

To be sure, making an operating system ensuring back-compatibility with the software and hardware of the majority of computers on Earth is a tad more challenging then accommodating the needs of a 4% market niche for which you manufacture the platform. But as I noted earlier in "Why Schizophrenia On The Mac Is A Good Thing", the new Intel-based Macs are allowing the running of Windows via Apple's BootStrap, and Windows or Linux with the virtualization software of Parallels Desktop (which requires no reboot, unlike BootStrap). So Apple's buyers should be able to avail themselves of any of these operating systems and whatever features they sport, presumably including Leopard's rumored cool new multimedia and search offerings.
Now the Mercury News quotes a Piper Jaffray analyst as saying that Microsoft viewed BootCamp's introduction as simply meaning there are now more computers to sell Windows on. True, but BootCamp gives current Windows/PC users the option of buying a machine that lets them run their old software while introducing them to Mac OS's elegance and advanced features. Parallels Desktop does the same, and allows access to Linux stability as well. Add to this the introduction of web-based apps from Google and others, and some users may discover its Windows they can live without. Microsoft's dominance is of course still its to lose. But it needs Vista to come out soon, and, when it does, the Beast of Redmond had better bring it.

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July 10, 2006

What Price DVI?

Computers | Jul 10, 06

Last week I told you about a cheap way to loose yourself in cyberspace. Yet the monitor in question lacked a DVI connection, quite possibly damping your high-definition euphoria.

Now it's often difficult to determine the market price for a specific feature of a tech product. Since different products generally differ from each other by more than one factor, simple subtraction fails to value any one characteristic. But here's an interesting exception. Thomas Salvey here at PriceSCAN.com points out that ViewSonic's 19 inch VA1912wb Widescreen Black LCD monitor has features very similar to the 19 inch Acer AL1916W featured in our previous blog entry ("Spending More Time In Front Of Your Computer Now Cheaper, Easier On Eyes") including 300cd/m2 brightness and a 500:1 contrast ratio. The key difference is that the ViewSonic has both HD15 and DVI connections, while the Acer only allows HD15. ViewSonic's model is going for as little as just under $200, about a $15 premium to the Acer and about 33% less than its price at the end of last year.

Time Period: 12/12/2005 through 7/3/2006
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Now no comparison is prefect, and indeed, the ViewSonic also sports a slightly higher native resolution of 1440 x 900 versus 1400 x 900, so some of those extra dollars may buy a few extra pixels. But I doubt either the slightly higher resolution or the difference in manufacturers accounts for much of the price spread. If you're willing to spring for an extra fifteen bucks, you'll get a name-brand monitor with a bit more resolution and more connection flexibility.

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July 6, 2006

Spending More Time In Front Of Your Computer Now Cheaper, Easier On Eyes

Computers | Jul 6, 06

Hey, why go outside or hang out with friends and loved ones when you could be peering into the soulless, synthetic glow of a monitor? But where to find an inexpensive, quality liquid crystal display in which to loose yourself in a pixelated miasma of spreadsheets and Everquest? At PriceSCAN.com, we’re here to help.

Check out the 19 inch Acer AL1916W. Right now, high-rated merchants on our site are offering the model for less than $185, a remarkable price considering that in March it was going for more than $250.
Time Period: 3/13/2006 through 7/3/2006
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

This monitor should provide a crisp, brilliant image, given its native resolution of 1400 x 900, 300cd/m2 brightness and a 500:1 contrast ratio. The AL1916W features HD15 video connectors and a response time of 8 milliseconds, which still represents a greater period than some people can stand to be away from their virtual worlds.

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June 15, 2006

Why Schizophrenia On The Mac Is A Good Thing

Computers | Jun 15, 06

Now that the beating heart of a Mac belongs to Intel, there's a new piece of software that allows you to run Windows or Linux on a Mac that's simultaneously running Mac OS X. It's called Parallels Desktop, and the Wall Street Journal just gave it a fairly positive review, noting its ease of use. There's no need to reboot and run one OS at a time; Windows or Linux just runs in a window on the Mac OS X desktop. Though the "virtualized" operating system runs a bit slower than it would if run solo a la BootCamp (see “Windows On A Mac – The End Is Near”) it's still said to be as fast as Windows on many Windows machines. Available from Parallels, it costs only $79 (BootCamp is free from Apple).

It's interesting to contemplate what this might mean for the marketplace. If the Mac is now truly a full-blown Windows computer that also offers the pleasures of OS X, there's really no reason for traditional PC buyers not to consider Apple's product. The Journal focused primarily on the Windows angle, but the potentially seamless use of Linux on a Mac only strengthens this argument (readers of this blog will recall I argued for running Linux on the Mac in the blog piece mentioned above). Further, Apple's traditionally higher price point, long a barrier to acceptance, has now fallen to the point where Macs are very competitive with other value-added design machines (see "Apple Cool Selling At Surprising Discount To Sony Style").
Cupertino has been historically weary of embracing non-Apple operating systems on Macs, but with the substitution of Intel chips for PowerPCs, that attitude was bound to wane. Indeed, Windows and Linux users, now able to run their programs on a Mac, may now find themselves drawn to these machines by Apple's styling and in the process discover what it is about the Mac OS that inspires such loyalty among a certain coterie of users. Apple and its Mac OS may yet find a way to increase market share beyond the relatively modest level of recent years. In any case, now there's certainly more reason to consider the Mac than the fact that it looks good connected to your iPod.

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June 6, 2006

Buy One Core, Get Another Half Off...

Computers | Jun 6, 06

...and then some, actually. Intel's bulk wholesale price cuts on its dual core line of processors took effect on May 28th, and we seem to be seeing its effects pass through to retail, as indicated by the PriceSCAN.com index tracking these processors.

Intel reduced the price of its Core Duo chips by as much as 33% in this recent move. With the new Core 2 Duo line of chips slated for release this summer, Intel's price cuts may be an attempt to clear inventory and address weak demand in the face of competition from AMD's low-power consumption offerings. Interestingly, Intel also announced significant price reductions for its older Pentium D, Pentium 4 and Celeron lines. These cuts take effect July 23rd and will be offered to all computer makers (as opposed to only the largest PC manufacturers) thereby potentially aiding "white box" players in their struggle with the likes of Dell and HP. The PriceSCAN.com index tracking Pentium D prices fell off sharply in late April, well ahead of this news, but has been relatively stable in recent weeks. Stay tuned as we move into July and August.

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May 22, 2006

Could Intel Gain Apple But Lose Dell?

Computers | May 22, 06

And things were going so well for Intel's dreams of bland uniformity. Even pesky Apple was learning to embrace sameness, finally placing a conformist Intel heart where PowerPC chips once resided, and putting out BootStrap to allow users to run XP on a Macintosh. (see "Windows On A Mac – The End Is Near") Remember those early Mac ads with a hammer-wielding rebel defying Orwellian tyrany? Seems Cupertino has learned to love Big Brother.

But an unlikely player is starting to color outside of Intel's lines. On Friday, Dell announced it will start putting AMD's Opteron chips in its multi-processor servers, apparently in a reach for higher performance. To be sure, this change effects only a small part of Dell's business, and while the firm didn't rule out placing AMD chips in its PCs, it made clear its commitment to use Intel chips in the majority of its machines for the foreseeable future. However, this isn't Dell's first flirtation with AMD, as its acquisition of high-performance game machine specialist Alienware gave the company a line based on AMD chips. ("Maybe They Could Make The Little Alien Head With The Glowing Eyes Look Like Michael Dell").
Having alternatives for microprocessors couldn't hurt Dell in any price negotiations with Intel. And in a world of commoditized computers and increasingly compressed margins, Dell may be looking for ways to distinguish its products – after all, Michael Dell himself recently expressed interest in giving users the option of running OS X on his products.
Then again, maybe Steve and Mike just can't play together, at least when it comes to using the same chips.

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April 7, 2006

Windows On A Mac – The End Is Near

Computers | Apr 7, 06

To devotees of the cult that is Apple, the idea of running Windows XP on a Intel-based Mac must seem a bit like taking a dry-aged porterhouse and smothering it with Cheez Whiz. Hey, even the transition to Intel chips was anathema to some purists, but the fact is that Cupertino's new openness toward the Beast from Redmond may turn out to be a strategic coup.

Virtually all computer users have acquired some familiarity with the Windows operating system, albeit sometimes against their will. Those who have chosen to follow the Mac path are unlikely to abandon OS X just because they can now run some Windows apps that are unavailable for Tiger. The BootCamp software that allows Windows to run on Macs is more likely to persuade current Windows users to consider switching to Apples. After all, they've been immersed in the iPod-fueled culture of Jobsian cool for years now. What's been holding them back but the high price of the Mac and the fact that their Windows-based software won't run on it, making the switching cost even higher.
Now, Windows Vista's consumer release has been pushed off into 2007, and reportedly the need to maintain back-compatibility is a main reason for the delay (see “Looking Backward, Dark Vistas”). Meanwhile, OS X already offers many of Vista's promised advanced features. With BootStrap, the Mac can run those Windows applications (by booting up with XP) that Microsoft is struggling to make work with Vista. What better time to make the transition to the Mac as painless as possible, and what better way than to render the new Macs platforms that preserve the usability of Windows apps? And if Apple can increase its market share from its current, relatively paltry 3%-5% level, more developers are likely to offer Mac versions of their software.
None of this is going to bring down Bill Gates' empire, and it's not clear how many Windows users will pay a premium for a Mac, even if it can run XP. But BootCamp could allow Apple to make a dent in Microsoft's hegemony, and its introduction suggests interesting strategic options for both firms. If making XP-compatible software run on Vista proves an intractable problem, Microsoft might steal a page from Apple and facilitate running both operating systems on the same machine, letting users keep their old programs while transitioning to Vista apps. As for Apple itself, its duel OS strategy is unlikely to allow it to make much headway into the world of servers, now dominated by Windows and Linux. Of course, OS X does have that Unix-like kernel, and there's all that enterprise software written for Linux....
Perhaps its time for Cupertino to think about compatibility with one more operating system. After all, as anyone who's ordered a Philly cheese steak know, if you're going "with whiz", you might as well throw on some onions.

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March 30, 2006

OK, We Promise To Play Nice And Stop Litigating - Now Please Put Down That Treo

Computers | Mar 30, 06

Seems that Palm may have benefited big time from RIM's recently settled legal dust-up with NTP over the technology behind the BlackBerry. The Wall Street Journal says that, in the quarter ended last November, Palm's Treo sales nearly matched new Blackberry accounts, and that Palm executives privately expect Treo purchases to pull ahead of Blackberry by the end of the year.

Of course, much of Palm's recent success moving Treos took place before the settlement, when there was serious fear out there that RIM's pocket-sized heralds of e-mail joy might be silenced by a judge's gavel. With that risk eliminated, will the demand for Treos slack off, or did all that legal wrangling open a window of opportunity through which Palm successfully showed consumers the benefits of its product? Palm has made some smart moves, offering free 45-day trials of the Treo with Good Technology's wireless e-mail service. Some customers, notably potential corporate buyers, may have taken a second (or maybe first) look at Palm's SmartPhone. And the Windows version of the Treo works with RIM's BlackBerry Connect software, providing the kind of compatibility that might help break the "lock in" effect of the BlackBerry's wide acceptance. Some may still feel that the messenger cum phone combo is kind of a brick, but it does eliminate the need to carry an extra gadget around. Whether all this is enough to get users to abandon the little gizmo that for so long has lovingly screamed for its missives to be read (see Palm Embraces Windows For Treo, But Still Lacks Blackberry's "In Your Fact" Factor) remains to be seen.

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March 29, 2006

Big Panasonic Plasma At Sharp Discount To LCD

Computers | Mar 29, 06

When it comes ringing up big numbers on the home entertainment cash register, there used to be few items that said "ka-ching!" louder than a big-screen plasma television. However, the products of two of the handful of manufacturers of screens at the rarified 65" size are displaying an interesting price relationship. Sharp's new LC-65D90U AQUOS Widescreen 65" LCD screen is selling at a considerable premium to Panasonic’s TH-65PHD8UK, the most popular plasma of the same size on PriceSCAN.com. It's worth noting that the Sharp has 1080p resolution, as opposed to 720i on the Panasonic. Now I'm not sure how much this means to the viewer who does not have the visual acuity of a peregrine falcon, and that goes for the plasma fans argument that their screens possess truer blacks than LCD. What is easier to see is that right now Panasonic's plasma is selling for a drab over $7,500, whereas Sharp's LCD is going for well over twice that.

Now we have seen some significant drops in the price of certain top-line plasmas, as exemplified in the graph of the Panasonic in question (below). We've also seen the withdrawal of Sony, formerly a major player in plasmas and now banking on other technologies. Panasonic, by contrast, seems to have increased its bet on plasmas. Look to see how long its price advantage holds as we move forward into a world of big LCDs.

Time Period: 9/19/2005 through 3/20/2006
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

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March 28, 2006

Maybe They Could Make The Little Alien Head With The Glowing Eyes Look Like Michael Dell

Computers | Mar 28, 06

Dell's recently announced acquisition of Alienware marks an interesting departure from the computer-as-commodity model the firm helped create, and within which the entire industry has been attempting to find a way to preserve margins. The firm itself has been experimenting with "value-added" design, and says it has sold out its limited edition $9,900.00 XPS 600 Renegade, a machine aimed at gamers that comes with a 30" screen, NVIDIA Quad SLI multi-GPU technology and a "True Fire" decorated case by Mike Lavallee of Killer Paint. The price point on such flame-embossed models might be just a smidge too high for the mass market, so enter Alienware, a brand loved by the game set and other consumers of high-performance graphics machines.

An indication of Dell's desire to prevent its generally rectilinear design aesthetic from infecting its new acquisition may be the announcement that Alienware will be run as a stand-alone enterprise with its design team kept intact and in place. Of course, Alienware's approx 200 million in revenue is so dwarfed by Dell's 55.9 billion top line that Reuters quoted a Dell spokesperson as calling the acquisition "financially immaterial". Alienware has always been a premium brand, and it's not clear yet to what degree Dell's marketing muscle can expand sales of so costly a set of computers. Perhaps Dell can bring economies of scale to Alienware's production, lowering prices and expanding sales. But Alienware's new owner would have to do this without ruining the brand's identity, as a member of Alienware's elite gaming clientele may not welcome the news: "Dude, you're getting a Dell!"

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March 27, 2006

Looking Backward, Dark Vistas

Computers | Mar 27, 06

An article in today's New York Times suggests that delays in the release of Microsoft's new Windows Vista operating system are largely attributable to Redmond's desire to maintain backward compatibility for software supported by earlier versions of Windows. This strategy is contrasted with that of Apple, which has a long history of having new versions of Mac OS not support applications developed for older vintages of that platform. This allows Jobs & Co. to be more nimble, offering new features (like 3-D graphics in OS X, for example) without having to worry about preserving the installed base's ability to run older programs.

Missing in this analysis is the downside of telling one's customers they should start using their legacy software backup disks as doorstops. For those who use their computers for more than the occasional game of EverQuest, making sure that "old" office suite or design software still works is a matter of no small economic moment. This is all the more true for proprietary business or research apps. That Cupertino doesn't dominate the market might just be related to the fear that one might have to chuck a significant investment in time and money on the whim of a guy in a black turtleneck who turned down his iPod just long enough to declare your corporate IT environment not cool enough to be supported by his latest insanely great new product. Indeed, had Apple taken the place in the market Microsoft currently occupies, capriciousness might have been added to the familiar sins of the near-monopolist.
To be sure, if innovation proves too difficult under Microsoft's policies of backward compatibility, then Mac, Linux and even Google's web-based computing might well be the beneficiaries. New features offered by competing technologies will become compelling enough to prompt abandonment of legacy apps as the current Windows ages. Likewise, should Microsoft itself abandon backward compatibility and therefore place buyers in the position of picking their computing platform de novo, then the firm's longtime customers (captives?) may feel free to choose other technologies based on their specific features, eroding Redmond's vaunted market share. However, if maintaining Microsoft's current strategy just means consumers must wait until Microsoft's current target date of January 2007 to buy Vista (an enterprise version is slated for a November 2006 release), I have a feeling many will judge keeping their old applications worth a few months of delay.
In any case, with the consumer version of Vista delayed, demand for new machines may prove softer than many had hoped for. Retailers and manufacturers have been given enough of a head's up as to let inventory management allow for this disappointment; still, look for some computer price weakness as we proceed through the year and into the holiday shopping season.

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March 24, 2006

Samsung Wants To Make Your Notebook Lighter, More Energy Efficient, And, Oh Yeah, More Expensive

Computers | Mar 24, 06

Samsung is touting a new NAND flash-memory chipset for notebook computers, which, with its 32 GB storage capacity, is meant to replace the ubiquitous hard drive. At fifteen grams, its less than a third of the weight of a hard drive, and of course flash uses a lot less juice than spinning a disk, so the new technology could extend battery time between battery charges.

However, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Samsung intends to market this chipset for $200-$250 in 2008, while even today hard drives with twice the capacity are available for around 25% of this price. So you'd be giving up a lot of storage and green to save those extra grams, and current laptop batteries can already get you through a transatlantic flight filled with the joy of spreadsheets and Word documents. The value proposition here may not be compelling enough to get laptop manufacturers to dump their hard drives in a flash.

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February 23, 2006

Hackers To Apple: No More Hiding Behind Your Puny Market Share

Computers | Feb 23, 06

There was a time when the Mac faithful could console themselves that there was safety in their iconoclastic choice in computing platform. As part of only five percent of the market, there just weren't enough of them to attract the attention of hackers, a point even the Pentagon was said to take into account in its choice of servers. But having a Tiger on your hard drive may no longer guarantee your security.

This week, three different worms were discovered boring into Apples, including one specifically targeting iChat, as well as a zipped graphic e-mail attachment and one that zeros in on a Mac's Bluetooth connection. Why the sudden interest in tormenting Cupertino's loyalists? Maybe the rise of another Apple product with far more formidable market share (and perhaps more importantly, mind share) has something to do with it, that being of course the iPod. While not all iPod users have Macs, a great many Mac users have iPods, and messing with the machine on which those iTunes are accessed and backed up may now be too tempting a target to ignore. And now that the iPod has reminded the world that the Mac OS exists, perhaps that operating system's architecture will make it attractive prey, given that it's built around the Unix kernel that old-school crackers know so well. So, oddly, even those Mac users who've never listened to music on little white earbuds may wind up paying a price for the ubiquitous iPod.

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January 18, 2006

Apple Cool Selling At Surprising Discount To Sony Style

Computers | Jan 18, 06

Apple has long been know for charging a hefty premium for its computers, and while this may have cost it market share, Mac fans have gotten more for their money than merely the use of a one-button mouse. Macs are arguably some of the most innovative and attractive examples of modern industrial design. While the Dells of this world crank out commoditized, port-bristling bricks only the Borg could love, few companies have been willing to challenge Cupertino when it comes to selling sleek. One exception has been Sony, whose VAIO line has been a welcome oasis of flair in the aesthetic desert of the Wintel world.

Given Apple's rep for costliness, however, it may come as something of a surprise to learn that the new Intel-based Macs are priced slightly below comparable VAIOs. For example, compare the all-in-one (computer integrated with LCD display) 20" display iMac with the 20" VAIO VA10G TV-PC. Merchants on PriceSCAN.com currently price the VAIO as low as $1,898.88. It comes with 1024 MB RAM and a 256 MB of VRAM video card. If we configure the iMac with these same features we find it’s currently priced at $1,874. There are differences; the VAIO has a 3.0 GHz Pentium 4 processor versus the slower clock speed but dual core 2GHz Intel Core Duo processor of the iMac (Which is faster? – it may depend on the app. See 'Core Wars'). The iMac has a higher resolution display: 1680 x 1050 versus the 1366 x 768 of the VAIO.
So what have we learned? Now that Apple has dropped the IBM/Motorola produced PowerPC chip in favor of Intel, the so-called Apple premium has dropped to the point where Macs are priced at or below similarly outfitted high-design competing machines. There is still a style premium – both Macs and VAIOs are substantially more expensive then, say, Gateways with similar features. But it appears that there was a significant added price to be paid for the presence of PowerPC processors in Macs, and that is a cost Apple buyers need no longer bear. Further, it appears there is little premium or discount associated with the choice of either the Windows or Mac operating system, so you can be a (stylish!) one or two-button person for about the same price.

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January 3, 2006

But We Feel So Empty Without Intel Inside

Computers | Jan 3, 06

Intel greeted the New Year with the announcement that it's doing away with its logo and "Intel Inside" motto. Apparently, the chip titan feels that raising the "e" in its name constitutes some sort of superior defensive posture against AMD, perhaps like when a cat arches its back (?) In addition, the new slogan "Leap ahead" is meant to make us think of Intel in terms of consumer electronics, rather than just computers. You see, microprocessors simply dwell "inside" laptops, but they "leap ahead" in home entertainment systems.

To be sure, Intel still intends to remind you that something they make is inside your machine. Its low power single and dual-core Yonah chips will be marketed as "Core Solo" and "Core Duo", respectively, and manufacturers participating in Intel's co-op ad program will mark machines sporting these processors with stickers declaring "Core Solo (or Duo) Inside". This raises interesting questions for the maker of iPods, which still produces the occasional computer and is switching to Intel chips. Are co-op ad dollars enough to get Steve Jobs to use a label stating that Intel makes the "Core" of his Apple?
More disturbing than the apparent idiocy of adults worrying about the altitude of a letter in the name of what is arguably the most important computer company in the world is the possibility that the leaders of that firm are right to sweat that formerly sagging character. How much Intel's past success was actually driven by ads featuring Blue Man Group and guys dancing around in clean-room bunny suits? Still, raising performance decisively above that of the competition still counts for something, and one suspects that to claw back its market share, Intel will have to get up more than just its "e".

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November 17, 2005

Sony Decides It Needs More Fiber

Computers | Nov 17, 05

The laptop business has become exceedingly competitive, with the machines themselves becoming increasingly commoditized. In such an environment, if a manufacturer wishes to have any more than a razor-thin profit margin it has to find some way to distinguish its products from its rivals. With the various computer makers using nearly identical microprocessors and memory, style and design become make or break factors. For some manufacturers this has meant the packaging of their laptops in sleek, lightweight cases, which is where Sony's new VAIO TX series comes in.

The TXs are Sony's line of light, multiple wireless-mode machines. The lack of heft comes from a carbon fiber and carbon composite case, allowing Sony to pack a remarkable number of powerful features into a less than three-pound machine. For example, the top of the line Sony VAIO TX670P/B has a 1.2 GHz Pentium M processor, 1024 MB of RAM, a 60 GB hard drive, DVD-RW, modem, 10/100, bluetooth and 802.11 b/g wireless connectivity, and an 11.1 inch XBRITE display. Its also offers WAN via the Cingular EDGE network. Yet it's only 2.8 lbs in a 10.7"x 8.83"-1.12"x 7.7" case, thanks in part to that high fiber content. Equally remarkable is the fact that while the TX670P/B is quoted at $2,599.99 on the Sony site, there are currently vendors on PriceSCAN advertising this machine at less than $2,390. Only time will tell if this increase in fiber content can make Sony's earnings more, er, regular, but given their sleek, lightweight design, the VAIO TX series might convince you that fiber does in fact belong in more than your bran muffin.

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October 8, 2005

Cheap "Pre-n" Routers Could Let Your Neighbors Jump Your Bubble

Computers | Oct 8, 05

That title may sound like the punch line of a Paris Hilton joke, but jumping a Wi-Fi bubble refers to accessing someone else's wireless router. The introduction of so-called "pre-n" routers allows the creation of Wi-Fi bubbles covering a quarter-million square feet, and it may surprise you to learn some people don't have homes that big. So, without proper precautions, your neighbors could be enjoying free Internet connectivity, courtesy of you.

Such range is made possible by so-called "multiple in, multiple out" (MIMO) chipsets, which process several radio signals simultaneously, helping to eliminate the corrupting effects of multiple signal path interference. The "pre-n" designation refers to the fact that these products have been released prior to the establishment of the IEEE's next generation 802.11n Wi-Fi standard (for those not up on the party scene, "IEEE" stands for the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers).
But what's of particular note right now is the recent drop in the price of supplying your whole neighborhood with Wi-Fi. For example, as can be seen from the PriceTrend Graph below, Belkin's Wireless Pre-N Router would have run you $130-$175 at the end of last year, but today its going for around $90.

Time Period: 12/13/2004 through 9/26/2005
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

This router features the Airgo Networks MIMO chipset, and you'll need a Pre-n network card, such as Belkin's models for notebooks, and desktops in order to use it.
Now the 802.11n standard isn't slated for establishment until at least the year after next, but perhaps its approach is contributing to this "pre-n" price decline. Be that as it may, with this kind of range you might consider enabling security when you set up your Wi-Fi, unless of course you're one of those altruistic types who wants to give your fellow human beings the gift of bandwidth – and perhaps all your personal data as well.

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September 22, 2005

Lenovo Selling Style At China Prices

Computers | Sep 22, 05

When Lenovo purchased IBM's personal computer division, there was considerable discussion about the effect lower Chinese production costs – the so called "China Price" - might have on the market (see Can Dell Compete with the China Price?) and indeed the new firm has been quite price competitive (Laptops at China Prices).

Now, however, Lenovo is raising the stakes by offering something other low-cost makers are not known for – design. Lenovo's new Titanium IBM ThinkPad Z series offers the kind of styling one associates with Sony or the old Apple Titanium machines, but at a fraction of the cost. To be available next month, these models feature fully integrated Verizon Wireless Braodband (an extra monthly fee applies), fingerprint recognition biometric security, gigabit Ethernet connectivity, ATI Radeon X300 enhanced graphics and Intel Celeron M processors. The Z60m is a 1.5 GHz, 15.4" widescreen model, which at 1.4" thick and 6.6 lbs is still fairly modest in size, while Lenovo claims the 1.4 Ghz Z60t, with its 14" screen, 1.1" thickness and 4.5 lb weight is the lightest machine in its class. And of course both have that cool scratch-resistant titanium case. Perhaps most impressively, the Z60m and Z60t are to be released at just under $800 and $1,100, respectively. Models with the Pentium M processor will also be offered, but for several hundred dollars more. Still, a lot of notebook – and style – for a very modest price.

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August 24, 2005

Are Falling Handheld Prices A Sign Of PDA Obsolescence?

Computers | Aug 24, 05

There's been a lot of talk about the PocketPC and Palm PDA market getting squeezed out of existence. These handhelds are under pressure from Blackberries and multi-function cell phones on the one hand, and low-cost notebook computers on the other. Now if this is the case, one might expect to see significant and rapid price cuts in the PDAs, and in fact there is some evidence of this effect.

Consider the most popular PocketPC on PriceSCAN.com, HP iPAQ HX4705. This WiFi and Bluetooth enabled model has seen its lowest offered price on this site fall by about $100 since January, a decline of nearly 20%.

Time Period: 1/17/2005 through 8/22/2005
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Interestingly, the HP iPAQ H6315 Pocket PC - Phone Edition saw an initial price drop last year but has displayed some price stability of late, so perhaps cell capability offers some hope to this line.

Time Period: 8/9/2004 through 8/22/2005
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Meanwhile, on the Palm side, we're also seeing some price slippage – see the graphs of the palmOne Tungsten E2 and Zire 31 below.

Time Period: 4/18/2005 through 8/22/2005
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Time Period: 5/3/2004 through 8/22/2005
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Of course much of this could simply be yet another aspect of generalized tech deflation. But even if old-style PDA functionality will truly be subsumed by other technologies, for those looking for a handheld today, the bargains are multiplying.

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June 16, 2005

Can H-P Keep Printing Money With Ink Cartridges?

Computers | Jun 16, 05

Hewlett-Packard’s decision to separate its computer and printer division is the latest sign of the firm’s unwinding of the strategies of former CEO Carly Fiorina, and has led to much speculation as to the fate of the enterprise created by H-P’s acquisition of Compaq. Yet if the move highlights a failed computer strategy, it also makes clear that the crown jewels of H-P's empire are to be found in its printer business.

Now what’s interesting about this fact is that while the price of printers has fallen dramatically in recent years, the price of ink has actually gone up. According to a 6/14/2005 Wall Street Journal article, the price of ink per milliliter in name-brand cartridges has risen about 1% per year. As can be seen from the graph below, even the lowest vendor price on PriceSCAN for the most popular H-P ink cartridge (the HP C6656AN #56 Blank InkJet Cartridge) has barely declined during a period of nearly three years.

Time Period: 8/19/2002 through 6/13/2005
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

It therefore not surprising that the key to H-P’s printer profits (constituting over 66% of the firm’s earnings) is not in the machines themselves bit in the sale of ink cartridges. However, therein lies a threat to the firm. Recently, many independent providers of cartridges and cartridge refills have emerged, offering ink at steep discounts to the prices charged by H-P, Lexmark and others. These include retail chains that specifically cater to refill needs. In the afore-mentioned Journal piece, the paper found these ink products generally OK, but not quite up to the quality level of H-P. There’s also a point the Journal did not mention, which is that the use of an ink not made by the printer manufacturer generally voids that company’s warranty on the printer.

Yet as printer prices fall, and thus the potential risk of loss due to a voided warranty is diminished, one wonders what will happen to the ink profits of H-P and others, especially if third party ink quality improves just a bit more. I’d like to invite readers to post any experiences they may have had with replacement cartridges or refills – it would be interesting to hear what PriceSCAN users think of these products.

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June 14, 2005

Falling Computer Prices Hold Down Inflation

Computers | Jun 14, 05

Our regular readers know this blog has chronicled a marked decline in the price of many cutting-edge technologies. With today's May Producer Price Index report from the Commerce Department, we get an interesting perspective on how dramatic this fall has been and what effect it's having on the overall inflation rate.

The overall PPI fell 0.6%. That was mostly due to a big decline in energy prices (-3.5%), and indeed, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the so-called core PPI rose 0.1%. And that's where tech prices come in. Computer prices were a key factor holding the core rate to this relatively benign level. They dropped in May by a stunning 4.8%, their biggest decline since January. What's driving this plunge? Candidate market forces certainly include low foreign labor costs and the commoditization of computers – Lenovo's purchase of IBM's PC business comes to mind, for example (see Laptops at China Prices and Can Dell Compete With The China Price?). There's more to this tech deflation, however. Despite significant increases in processor speed and abilities (i.e. hyperthreading and dual-core multi-thread architectures – see Core Wars) there have been few new applications introduced that demand these new hardware capabilities. Most of the software that does require such horsepower is in niches like gaming and workstation apps. Without innovative applications to motivate buyers, demand tends to be limited to that produced by overall economic growth and simple lifecycle driven unit replacement. The industry has been hoping for relief from Redmond, but the way Microsoft keeps pushing back the release date for its new operating system (code named Longhorn), one wonders whether we'll see a new Ice Age before it shows up, and I don't mean a sequel from Fox.
Looked at over the last few months, overall pricing data is a bit less friendly, and the markets and the Federal Reserve will likely continue to contend with the risk of accelerating inflation. Those interested in buying computers, however, are enjoying a happy state of affairs, as a casual inspection of the prices in our computer category will attest.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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June 8, 2005

Can Intel Help Apple Close Its Price Gap?

Computers | Jun 8, 05

Most of the press on Apple's recent decision to switch from chips made by IBM (in partnership with Motorola) to Intel's x86 line has been discussed in the context of Cupertino's desire to obtain processors that run faster and cooler (the heat problem has been particularly acute for PowerBooks, limiting the speed Apple can offer). Yet perhaps the larger impact may be on the traditional premium Mac users have had to pay to stay out of the Wintel world. To understand just how steep the price of Intel-comparable Apple performance has become, consider that the price of a top of the line PowerBook G4 with a 1.67 Ghz processor, 512 RAM, 100 GB HD, DVD-R drive, modem, 100 BT/802.11g connectivity and 15.2 inch active matrix display is at least $2,250, whereas the Toshiba Satellite M45-S351 with a 1.73 GHz Pentium M, a 15.4 inch active matrix display and comparable other stats goes for a relatively paltry $1,280. To be sure, the PowerBook commands a design premium – it comes in a sleek chassis and weighs only 4.6 lbs compared to the only slightly faster and larger-screened Satellite's 6.5 lbs. But is that design difference worth a grand?

Now, Apple will no longer be buying a niche processor, but rather building their machines around the more commodity-like Intel product. By purchasing x86 processors, Apple should be able to avail itself of Intel's production economies of scale. This should reduce Apple's costs and allow it to lower prices, even accounting for some design premium (hopefully they can switch notebook processors without increasing weight).

In the past, Steve Jobs has had something of a deaf ear when it comes to what price point the market will find acceptable. You know what I mean if you recall the Lisa and Jobs' proposed pricing of the first Macs, not to mention the NeXT machine. Lately, however, he's been spot-on in gauging how to position the iPod, and the rollout of the Mac Mini shows an obvious new interest in low price machines. Apple may even be looking down the road to devices to compete with the IBM-based Xbox. The real question is whether Jobs will choose to pass on his savings on processors to the consumer, sacrificing per unit margin to market share.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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June 7, 2005

Core Wars

Computers | Jun 7, 05

The battle for dominance in the emerging dual-core processor market was joined a few days ago when AMD started sending out test versions of its new Athlon 64 X2, to compete with Intel's dual-core Pentium D and the dual-core version of the Pentium 4 Extreme Edition chipset released in April. Early buzz from reviewers seems to give much of the edge to AMD, but there's a catch for both. While generally faster than single-core processors when executing multi-threaded programs like some game programs and workstation applications, dual-core processors are actually slower than their single-core brethren for single-threaded applications. There is thus a real question as to how much migration from single-core processors can be expected with this generation of dual-core.

Often, we find that when a new technology is about to be introduced, the market anticipates that release and starts to discount the old state of the art. Thus, one clue regarding the future impact of the current version of dual-core technology might be found by examining the price behavior of state of the art single core processors. Consider the following PriceTrend graph of a single-core Intel Pentium 4 3.4 GHz Extreme Edition (which does support hyper-threading). As you can see, the lowest price offered by a vendor on PriceSCAN actually shows a slight, recent rise in price, so it appears that there is as yet little or no dual-core anxiety in what is still a single-core world.

Time Period: 6/21/2004 through 5/30/2005
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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June 2, 2005

Google's Picasa 2 - A Free iPhoto Substitute For Windows, Not Macs

Computers | Jun 2, 05

We tend to focus on pricing issues in this blog, and there's no more interesting price than zero. Google just released Picasa 2, a free image management and editing package that indexes the photos and movies on your hard drive, puts them into a searchable database, and lets you make changes including red-eye and color adjustment, crops and orientation adjustment among others. In short, its feature set is similar to that of Apple's iPhoto, but so far Google has only released a Windows version. The omission of a Mac version is interesting – perhaps Google reasons that with most Macs already running iPhoto there's no point in making the investment to try to break into a user base that's already locked up. But the buzz on Picasa 2 is quite good – it's said to be very fast and considerably easier to use than iPhoto, so perhaps they should consider rolling out something Cupertino’s clientele could use. After all, many people buy Macs precisely because they view them as superior platforms for image and media work, and the zero price tag on Picasa helps knock down the barrier to entry.

It's also interesting to consider Picasa 2's effect on Adobe. While more serious enthusiasts might complain that Google's offering might not include all the editing functionality of Adobe Photoshop Elements 3.0, for example, it might well be good enough for users with basic needs, impacting Adobe's market share on the low end (e.g. Photoshop Album 2.0), and it is, after all, free.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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May 26, 2005

Laptops at China Prices

Computers | May 26, 05

Back on December 08, 2004, I reported on the Chinese firm Lenovo's purchase of IBM's PC business, and speculated on whether lower production costs might result in the so-called "China price" effect, impacting the margins of rival producers like Dell (see "Can Dell Compete with the China Price"). The jury is still out on that, but in the months since that deal's announcement there has been a marked drop in Levono's IBM laptop prices.

For just one example, consider the IBM ThinkPad T42, a 4.9 pound,1.60 GHz Pentium M machine with 256MB of RAM, a 40 GB hard drive, a CDRW/DVD drive, modem, 100 BT and 802.11g wireless connectivity, 14.1 active matrix display and Windows XP Professional. As you can see from the graph below, at the end of last year this computer was going for north of $1,500, while right now it may be had for under $1,225, a drop of about 20% in just five months. There are quite a few other IBM models that have seen similar price drops – you can check these out here.

Time Period: 12/20/2004 through 5/23/2005
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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May 20, 2005

No 911, No VoIP

Computers | May 20, 05

The FCC voted 4-0 yesterday to require certain providers of VoIP phone services to supply enhanced 911 (E911) emergency calling capabilities to their customers as a standard feature. This order applies to any VoIP service that enables customers to receive calls from and terminate calls to the public switched telephone network (PSTN). The order does not apply to software companies like Skype that only provide computer to computer connections.

Link to FCC announcement

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May 16, 2005

Turning Your Computer Into A Digital Video Recorder For Under $70.

Computers | May 16, 05

If you don't feel like paying hundreds of dollars for a stand-alone digital video recorder, you should know how cheap its gotten to give your computer the same functionality, assuming your machine already has a DVD-RW drive.

Video-capture packages consisting of a TV tuner card and software can turn your laptop or desktop into a DVR. Further, you can do so for surprisingly little money. For example, the AverMedia UltraTV USB 300 External USB 2.0 is such a device. Designed to fit in your laptop case, its power is drawn from its USB connection so no separate transformer is required. The UltraTV software works with free TitanTV program scheduling and allows pause and replay of live shows, much as TiVo does. And what's really remarkable is the price – now available from vendors for less than seventy bucks.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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April 25, 2005

If your car has a navigation system ...

Computers | Apr 25, 05

Would you sell your computer without wiping out the hard drive? Have you thought about the personal information stored in your car's navigation system or HomeLink garage door opener?

The following story was reported on the AutoSpies website.

I'm currently driving a Lexus LX470 that I bought a couple of weeks ago at one of the local dealer auctions. It's an off-lease vehicle and has a factory navigation system. As I was driving on one of Orange County's toll roads Wednesday, I noticed an icon appear on the navigation screen. It was an image of a house. I quickly realized that this was the former "home" of the vehicle - a multi-million dollar home in one of OC's most exclusive neighborhoods. I also realized that if I hit the "home" button on the nav system, it would take me right there. And I would be willing to BET that if I hit the built-in HomeLink garage door opener, up would go the garage door, and I'd be in like Flint!! I didn't go try, but you get my point. I'm not about to go roam around these folks' house, but what if someone else with less scruples had obtained the vehicle? More to the point, do we want strangers knowing where we live and having the chance to enter at will? So the lesson is: in these days of heavily computerized vehicles we all need to be mindful of personal data. Just as you'd never sell a computer without first wiping the hard drive, you need to do the same with your vehicles' data sets. Wipe all the navigation data (especially your home address) and de-program the door openers before you turn in your lease or trade in your car. A little bit of effort, sure, but what's it worth to have peace of mind? Otherwise, who knows who could be coming to visit?

Dr. Dave- AutoGuys

Posted by david.cost
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February 13, 2005

Laptops of every size and weight

Computers | Feb 13, 05

Most of us agree about what a "desktop" computer is. It is a computer that sits on your desk, and is only very occasionally moved---usually when changing offices or redecorating the home.

However, when we get to Laptops things get more complicated. Non desktop machines vary in size and weight. At the low/small end they may be under a pound and the size of a PDA. At the upper end they may weigh 10 lbs and almost fill a whole briefcase. This isn't surprising in circumstances where each of us has different needs that this technology can help us supply.

Another major issue has to do with data capture. Some of the devices have touch sensitive screens, while others do not. Some have standard sized keys, while others have either "chiclet" keys or the tiny Blackberry sized keyboards. These differences make some of the devices appropriate for entering reasonable quantities of data, while others effectively limit the available input capacity to only a few keystrokes.

Perhaps it would be useful to compare and contrast some of these "laptop roles".

First, let's discuss some terminology, all of which is used in talking about these machines, but often in a somewhat haphazard way. We'll talk a little about:

1. Cell Phones;
2. PDA-sized machines;
3. Hand-helds;
4. Tablets;
5. Super-light Notebooks;
6. Regular Notebooks and
7. Laptops;

We'll take a quick look at each size and capability. However, to make that meaningful, we will start looking at some of the problems that the various scale of machine attempts to deal with.

First,

there is the "PDA" aspect. While PDAs are, in an of themselves, an interesting category to discuss, that is not our purpose here. We are interested only in PDAs that have sufficient progamming power to be considered as a "full computer". When we add that qualification, we are looking at a much more limited set, and one which, at this point in time, is really only satisfied by some Unix-based machines. Windows (and we don't count WinCE as "windows" for our purposes) is just too complex to (so far) be delivered in a very small tightly packaged machine.

To satisy needs as a PDA, there are a few necessary characteristics. The device must be essentially instant on. Perhaps a few seconds (a very few seconds) of "boot" is tolerable, but this it is intolerable to take more than just a few seconds, as PDAs tend to be used in circumstances where there are severe time constraints. Looking for a phone number, for example, better not take very long or one will resort to other means of finding it.

PDAs also require a longer time span between battery charges than would be the case for most normal computers. PDAs are used on trips where it may be inconvenient to re-charge them every five or six hours.

Another aspect of the "mobile computer" is how, and how often, it is to be transported. For some people, they want a computer as a companion to a daily commute. For others, portability is useful when moving from home to a summer house. Sometimes we have to lug them in our briefcase, in other situations, the trunk of the car will do. One of my earliest portables was a 10 lb machine back in the days when that wasn't unusual. It made exactly two trans-continental trips with me. Thereafter I always managed to figure out some way to avoid doing this arduous transportation activity. I'd borrow a computer, re-organize work so I didn't need one, or find some other way of avoiding lugging "the brick".

Second,

So different people have different needs. None of our discussion should skip over that point. What is important for our purposes, though, is some estimate of the size of each of the different markets.

Cell Phones None of these exist yet. And they may never make it, although there is every reason to believe that a Linux-based cell phone would, technically, be quite feasible. At the moment, however, we can probably skip this category.

PDA-sized machines might be useful, not (except for the rarest of the rare individuals) as a place to engage in any serious programming activity, but rather as a place where the result of such activities might conveniently be put to use. Again, this doesn't---at least at the present time---seem like a very large market, but there would at least be some demand.

Hand-helds tend to weigh only a pound or so. Some, like the OQO have existed only as "vapor" until very recently. Others, such as Flipstart are still in that category. Still others have been serving a (albeit very expensive) niche market for some time: Antelope and Tiqit to name a couple of examples. These machines seem to be another attempt to break through into the marketplace that was once occupied, and then abandoned, by the time-honored Libretto, and I must confess that it is not clear why the current developers of this technology expect to succeed where such a machine has already failed---several years ago. But perhaps they are right and it is just time to re-cycle an old idea again in the hopes that it will catch on. Goodness knows we have done that often enough with TV series to know that it is at least possible.

Tablets have an extensive range, particularly in the cost dimension. Supposedly the soon to be available Pepper will weigh in at about $900, and will run a version of Linux as its operating base system. Other tablet devices, built by the more main-line firms, range in price from $1500 on up, reaching some very high limits for devices that are intended to operate in adverse working conditions.

Super-light Notebooks weigh in at about three pounds, and tend to have keyboards and screens that are near normal to normal sized. One of my favorite portables ever was a Sony 505 that was light, thin and had a wonderful screen and keyboard. While these devices are generally very useful for information display and capture, they generally do not have built it CDs or DVDs. The disk devices are simply too heavy, and usually connect either through a expansion base, or through some sort of PCMCIA "dongle". This means that the super-lights are wonderful for some set of problems, but---relatively speaking---a nusciance for others.

Regular Notebooks weigh five to eight pounds, and typically have full sized keyboards and a built-in CD or DVD disk drive. These days this is probably the largest category, in terms of number of units, of any of the "laptop" categories.

Laptops round out the list. Some of these get to be quite heavy, approaching ten pounds, or even more. They often have beautiful screens---today as large as 17", and are used as much as supplementary entertainment centers as they are as productive workstations. These are excellent machines to allow us to move between different sites of computation. Particularly if we can move between the sites by car, or by other means that do not require us to lug these heavy devices on our own shoulders.

Third,

So that's the layout of laptops as we see them on the market today. All have their own place, and given our own problems, some will prove to be useful while others will prove to have little value. It's getting the right match between your own problem and this exciting technology that counts.

Posted by david.ness
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February 10, 2005

Yet More Great LCD Deals

Computers | Feb 10, 05

Yesterday, I said there were lots of LCDs listed on PriceSCAN whose prices had dropped sharply, and I can't resist highlighting one more of them today. First, take a look at the Sony StylePro SDM-S73, a 17 inch 1280 x 1024 native resolution screen that last year would have run you $425, and today can be had for about $270.

Rarely has Sony quality come so cheap. And, for those of you in a noir mood, it comes in black, too.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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January 26, 2005

Mega-Storage: Ifs and Buts

Computers | Jan 26, 05

I remember seeing my first hard disk. It was in the middle 1950s and we regarded it with awe. After all, for a few thousand dollars/month you could have access to its tremendous capacity. I think it was about 4mb in today's terms.

These days, that's only enough capacity to store one decent still picture. Today we can easily use a couple of hundred thousand times the storage represented by one 1956 hard disk. An hour of broadcast TV, for example, is about 3.5 gigabytes, just about a thousand times the capacity of these old devices.

It is now a commonplace for machines, both desktop and laptop, to have storage measured in Gigabytes. And as individual users begin to build archives of photographs, videos, music and TV shows, storage requirements that approach Terabytes are not out of the question.

There seem to be three ways that this kind of storage can be made available in current systems. First, it can be built-in. This is simple and straightforward. These days if you buy a desktop machine that is described as a media center, or its equivalent, you will typically get somewhere between 200 and 500 Gigabytes of storage directly built in to the machine, just as you'd expect to find a hard disk configured. In a notebook, you'd expect to find 40 to 100 Gigabytes of storage. These numbers are reasonable tradeoffs between the desktop and laptop worlds, and the only additional requirement is that the disks involved rotate quickly enough to that it is possible to stream images off at a rate sufficent for display television. Current specs seem to indicate that 5400rpm is sufficient, while slower rotational speeds are not.

Second, there are storage devices that connect to machines via firewire and/or USB 2.0. This configuration differs from the built-in configuration principally in that it is easy to move the disks from one computer to another. Typically all that need be done is for the cable to be moved. These days 250 to 400 gigabytes of such storage is (physically) quite portable, so it becomes a natural way of carrying a huge amount of storage from one system to another. And the speeds which can be achieved in the connection channels are of sufficent power that the transfer of information can proceed at a comfortable rate. In this case a "comfortable rate" can be defined as a rate sufficient to keep up with the display of images on a TV screen.

Third, there is Network Attached Storage. These boxes share many common properties with the portable disks just described above, but in addition they have enough computational capability that they are able to support the interpretation of a file structure and an IP node. Thus, instead of hooking up to a machine, they hook directly on to the net, and stand ready to serve any of the machines that have access to the net. All of the security issues are dealt with just as one would expect on a network.

The economic analysis of these devices can lead to some strange anomolies in cost. This is probably just the effect of the information about alternative devices and capabilities as it flows out to the marketplace. It was regarded as a giant breakthrough when the price of a terabyte of storage dropped to $5,000. Now it is available, in a very convenient form, for about $1 per Gigabyte, or $1,000. And the price continues to drop.

The cost of this kind of storage has two components. One is the raw cost of the storage. This applies to those devices that connect via a USB port or through Firewire. If we are talking about Network Attached Storage then there is some additional cost of providing the hardware that effects the management of the network and its relationship to the storage devices.

Sometime this leads to strange design decisions. For example, Linksys has a Network Storage Link which is supposed to take USB devices and convert them into Network Attached Storage by performing the appropriate translations and providing the appropriate interface. It does, indeed, do this, but in doing so it insists on reformatting the storage to its own specification. This, in turn, means that the storage devices become useless unless they are attached to systems via a NSL. Thus the storage no longer has any value on a stand-alone---where we might want to run without any net---or in moving from one system to another, unless we are willing to move the NSL as well.

Given the number of machines that are sitting around these days, it seems that a more practicable solution is to simply devote some old machine to the role of attaching one or more storage devices to the network. I would imagine that lots of users have now accumulated some ancient machines which they would be willing to sacrifice to this role. It would seem to be a superior way to connect things up.

In any case, this kind of storage is now both accessable and affordable. It's not a bad approximation to assume that you ought to be able to get lots of storage at about $1/Gigabyte. That means that for about $1000 you can buy a terabyte of storage and have room for a week's worth of TV, a year's worth of Music, or a lifetime worth of photos.

Posted by david.ness
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January 11, 2005

Apple's New Stuff: Cheap Mac, Cheaper iPod

Computers | Jan 11, 05

Confirming rumors reported here by David Ness on 1/5/2005 ( see "Is There A Mini-Mac in Your Future" ), next Saturday Apple will start selling their Mini Mac computer for $499. It comes sans keyboard, monitor or mouse, but if you have those things lying around and your looking for a cheap way to download and backup your iTunes, here it is. Perhaps even more intriguing, Cupertino also unveiled an iPod for less than $100. It's the iPod Shuffle, and it's the size of a key chain with flash memory replacing the hard drive (it comes in 512 MB or 1G models that hold up to 240 songs). It has no display, so to program play order you have to plug into your computer's USB port and use the iTunes Autofill; otherwise you can play your songs in random or "shuffled" order, hence the name.

Between these two machines Apple is offering entry into the consumer music market at bargain-basement prices, without sacrificing style. If they can keep up with demand, and if the music industry continues to tolerate Apple's proprietary standards (see "Steve Jobs, Lord of the Dance" ), then the folks who brought us the Newton may have a winning combination here.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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January 6, 2005

Walmart.com's $498 Laptop - Are You “Linspired”?

Computers | Jan 6, 05

Yeah, you read right. For just under five hundred bucks a Linux-loaded laptop from Wal-Mart is yours. It's the Balance CN4949 and it comes with a VIA C3 1 GHz microprocessor, a 14.1 in LCD display, a 30 GB hard drive, 128MB of RAM and an office suite from OpenOffice.org. And, oh yes, the Linspire Linux operating system, which is to say this is the Colossus of Little Rock's demonstration of just how inexpensive computing can be if one breaks out of Microsoft's orbit. The interesting question here is whether so low a price point might actually persuade PC users to try life on the Linux side. There are those who argue that the cost of paying Linux support firms like Red Hat, coupled with the Linux learning curve, present daunting obstacles which keep this free operating system the preserve of servers and system admin types. But Walmart.com is clearly gunning for the client side laptop user, banking on Linspire's user-friendly implementation and a dirt-cheap price to break through the Linux fear barrier. If it works, count on Dell, HP & Co. to take note, and for Redmond to find itself with a hell of a headache.

One other note – its interesting to consider Wal-Mart's move in the context of Apple's rumored pending release of an ultra-low-cost Mac (see David Ness's piece on this below). If this machine materializes it may demonstrate that cheap boxes can be born of even the most proprietary hardware and operating system technology. Perhaps there's a lot more room on the low end in the Windows world as well, albeit at the cost of slimmer margins.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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January 1, 2005

Is there a Mini-Mac in your future?

Computers | Jan 1, 05

We appear to be floating on a sea of rumors about the pending release of an 'Under $500 Mac'. What the rumor mill is less clear about is the purpose that such a machine might serve. Will it be a "full" Mac or rather some limited version (paralleling, ugh, the difference between "real Windows" and "Windows CE")? Is the purpose to deliver a general purpose cheap Mac, or is it fill some new niche (Home entertainment, for example) which so far has been pretty much outside of Apple's domain. Or is this all an homage on the part of Steve Jobs to the Newton, since he had a reputation as the Newton-Killer?

Let's take a look at some of the possible positioning of such a product, if it is to exist.

First, there is the Mac Design. In recent times the only "miss" in Apple's design was the iMac. While some people loved it, they were pretty much Apple apologists. The rest of the world met the lackluster design (How could you design a machine at that time that didn't have a wireless mouse. The ads made it look like it had a wireless mouse, but it didn't). Ugh. However, other than that the record has been good, and I (no Mac apologist) like the look of the whole iPod package a great deal. The design is simple, effective, and distinctive enough that people actually stop you on the street and ask "How do you like your iPod?" Apparently they recognize it from the tell-tale white earplugs and wires. One role for a new Mac might be to simply carry this distinctive design into a wider equipment offering.

Second, there is the Mac PDA. If the current rumors are correct, and the device lacks a display, then it is unlikely that it is being targeted for this market (unless there is a simultaneous annnouncement of a pocket-sized display unit). While this could happen, it is far enough down the tree of assumptions to make it difficult to say much more now, in anticipation. This discussion, if relevant, can take place after the announcement. Since the PDA market seems to be collapsing on its own, it would be unusual for this to be the target market.

Third, there is the Game Mac. In this marketplace it really seems that size matters. The marketplace is quickly divided into desktop/TV monitor sized game environments, and small self contained portable environments. As is the case made in the PDA discussion above, it seems unlikely that Apple would be interested in creating a device small enough to compete with the hand-held game devices. It certainly would be possible to compete with PCs here, but, again, that would seem like a relatively low-margin proposition, at least until a substantial user community is developed to create enough demand to be worth it.

Fourth, there is the Media Center. This would be a tantalizing possibility. First, it has always seemed strange that Apple has left TV pretty much out of its picture. It clearly has lots of software and hardware capability devoted to sound processing, and to the processing of both still and animated images. Yet it has never had any particular link into the TV world where so much time and money is spent. At the moment, most of the PC based devices that occupy this market domain cost $2,000 and up. While these costs are falling dramatically as we write this, there is still a considerable opportunity for profitable entry to this market, and no one seems to have cornered this market yet. The current battle seems to be between Sony and HP, as the major manufacturers, a;ong with lots of speciality small firms that occupy most of the surrounding market territory.

Fifth, there is the Cheap Mac. Perhaps this is all in response to the growing number of PCs which occupy the $500 and under marketplace. However, this would be a more complex move for Apple than it might be for many of its competitors. The PC exists in a world where there is a lot of free software, and in this world the cost of hardware is a very componenet of overall cost of operation. In the Mac world, software tends to be more expensive, and thus hardware costs are a lower proportion of the cost of ownership than would be the case for a PC. As a result, cheap hardware, while always attractive, may not be as significant drawing point as would be the case.

Sixth, there is the iPod Manager. And this may be the most attractive of all. The iPod has been a stunning success, and where there is a lot of competitiive product nipping at its heels, no one has yet been able to take a very substantial bite of the marketplace. While it looks like the Photo iPod is turning out to be pretty much a failure, there is still a lot of opportunity to build systems that use iPods as the head end.

Posted by david.ness
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December 8, 2004

Can Dell Compete with the China Price?

Computers | Dec 8, 04

So the Chinese PC-maker Lenovo is buying IBM's PC business, which will make the firm number three in the market with about an 8% share. But the real issue is what happens to PC prices and firms now that the PC is increasingly a commodity. As the world has seen, commodity manufacture tends to migrate to the cheapest labor market, and a movement of the personal computer hardware business to China would be just the latest example. Indeed, manufacturers in this country often complain of competing against the so-called "China price"; the price offered by Chinese firms availing themselves of super-low wages in their own country. So what might the Lenovo-IBM deal mean for consumers? Expect further downward price pressure on PCs. And for Dell, HP and friends? Unless they can make some case for "value-added" pricing driven by service and styling, they'll experience ferocious competition, and, at best, razor-thin margins.

Posted by jeffrey.trester
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December 6, 2004

Snow White and the Dwarfs

Computers | Dec 6, 04

In the 1970s it was common to refer to the players in the Computer Industry as 'Snow White and the 7 Dwarfs'. IBM was 'Snow White' and the 'Dwarfs' were DEC, Univac, NCR, ... One-by-one the dwarfs pretty much died, imploded or were (shudder) 'merged' to be replace by a second generation of firms, Compaq, AT&T, ... as PCs began to have an impact on the marketplace.

This brought a short period of time when pundits and seers would openly wonder if IBM was going to so dominate the world of computation that there would be no serious rivals left. We would have an essential monopoly of supply, and while some small specialist firms might still sell a few machines, the bulk of the business would belong to IBM.

It didn't work out that way.

Two funny things happend on the way to that scenario. First, the PC market began to grow at an astonishing rate. What were hobbyst toys and workbench technology in the late 1970s became, no small thanks to IBM, serious business machines by the early 1980s. Their use was still pretty much limited to assistants and secretaries (Debate about whether 'managers' would ever have computers on their desks was still a common item in the press) but nevertheless usage grew and gained momentum.

Second, as the quality level of some of the then off-brand suppliers began to rise, the mystique of 'blue boxes' gradually wore away, and by the middle 1980s the PCs produced by what had been the off-brand suppliers often became better known for quality than the IBM PCs that they started to replace. I had many an early Dell Computer which I would have rated as 'technologically superior' to the parallel IBM products.

And as the software that drove the machines moved from a thinly disguised version of Kildahl's CP/M into DOS, Bill Gates first began to prick the skin of IBM, and then continued by taking huge bites of the meat of its profitability. And as time passed more and more of that profitability moved from the building of the hardware --- increasingly left to Asian manufacturers and assemblers --- to the software where it was lawyers, not designers, that were the most important instruments in assuring profitability.

In addition, the hardware had increasingly been concentrated in two major architectures: Motorola chips supported Apples and Intel chips supported PCs. Apple, with a fractional market share (5% and tending toward less) concentrated on particular markets largely associated with 'the arts' (image and sound processing) while PC architectures covered 'the rest of the world.' There were a few other players, but they tended to be highly specialized and had little impact on the overall marketplace.

All of this has made the production and marketing of PCs more of a commodity-like market as each day passed. And the more commodity-like the market became, the less profitability there was to be shared among the producers. Most machines with US labels were actually built in Taiwan or Singapore or in other places that had highly skilled labor forces that were available for a fraction of what their cost would have been in the US.

So all of this leads up to a decision by IBM, in no small measure the very firm responsible for the `PC revolution' to now make a decision to sell that business. Whether this is a wise decision or not isn't going to be debated here. Instead, I think it might be interesting to contemplate the different kinds of buyers who are --- or at least should be --- thinking about buying that business.

There are too many companies who might be interested to look at each of the possibilities in detail. However, I think we can concentrate our focus on four broad groups of potential buyers. For each of these groups buying IBM's PC business would or might perform a different function. Depending on economic forces, the value to some of the firms might be rather dramatically different than that to others. Let's take a look:

Buy Market Share
The most straightforward, and therefore the most boring, ploy would be to have Sony, HP, or Dell buy the business. This seems unlikely, but with reputations at stake, I don't think it should be ruled out of hand without at least giving passing consideration. Fiorina at HP, for example, may find herself in dire need of taking some dramatic step, and this might be one such step.

However, it is no longer clear that in 'buying the business' you buy much loyalty. HP has already found this out with Compaq. At the moment their commercial line is reasonably confused by overlap between HP products and some legacy Compaq devices, and adding a line of legacy IBM products would probably not help clear up any of these confusions.

The same might be said, though less strongly, for Michael Dell. He might like to 'have IBM for lunch', and his product line is certainly stodgy, even if effective. IBMs productline might be a better complement to his line than to HPs.

Finally, Sony has become a 'design oriented' PC supplier, but I see less reason for them to be interested, unless there are some 'ego' considerations at play in Tokyo. If so, I wouldn't know about them, but I rather suspect that Sony would be unlikely to want to tie up their capital with this investment at this time.

Go International
Current speculation focuses on 'China' being a possible buyer. This would make some sense. First, cost-concious engineering considerations are very much a part of the normal production process in China. Second, labor costs are very low, and would allow China to make a reasonable source of international currency earnings out of some of this labor if they became a major player in this marketplace. In this view, China would be buying jobs rather than a marketplace.

One further consideration should not be neglected. China might like to become its own sole-source for computer hardware. One of the most difficult tasks in an open PC and Internet world is keeping any semblance of control on what PCs are used for, and how they manage the flow of information. Were China to do something as simple as put 'label' chips in each PC, software might easily make use of such capabilites to manage much tighter control over information flow.

Western firms have been largely prevented from doing this because of competition. But a single supplier as large as China might decide to make use of this, and other more elaborate kinds, of related technology. True, westerners wouldn't have to buy the machines that were equipped with such controls, but if your choice is between a $2,000 machine without such controls and a $1,000 machine with controls that you didn't much care about anyway, I can well imagine cuting costs to overwhelm ideological arguments.

Take a Bite
An amusing prospect would be to have Apple take a bite of IBM. Apple's market share has been stagnant at about 3% for years now. While the company has done very well, particularly with the iPod, its PC-level sales have hardly budged. And with the growth of the iPod business and its potential follow-ons, more and more of the profitability of Apple seems to be coming from the 96% of the world that are not primary Apple users than from the 4% who are.

Whether there would be any real advantage to owning IBMs PC line remains to be seen. Aside from the fact that IBM's 'basic black' contrasts nicely with Apple's 'pure white' motif, IBM has almost a high enough design component to fit into an Apple portfolio.

And then there's ego. One would just have to guess that Steve Jobs might enjoy owning IBMs PC business. With his cash, and cash flow, there might be no small amount of pleasure in having that little two-man operation started in that infamous garage end up owning a major business component of one of the world's largest companies.

It might also give Bill Gates a small pause for thought. As Apple has absorbed Unix technology, it has become increasingly viable as a supplier to core businesses. Its penetration into that marketplace is still quite insignificant, but adding the IBM architecture to this picture might provide a sufficient corpus of strength to even tackle Gates' dominance of the software market place, and thus really give Windows a run for the money.

Support Currently Growing Markets
Finally, we are still looking for the 'killer application' that will become the spread-sheet of the next generation. It is not unreasonable to suggest that spreadsheets really created the hard core center of the PC market. Lotus 1-2-3 probably sold more early computers than anything else that the hardware did. That huge success has never been followed by another, no matter how hard we have been looking for it.

Now there are at least two contenders for that role. One is the PC as a core communications device, and the other is the PC in its role as the possible focus of the personal entertainment world.

Both of these are important marketplaces, each worthy of analysis in its own right. We don't have the time or the space to do that right here and right now, but it is at least worth thinking about in terms of a possible IBM sale. Both Sony and HP have started to make commitments in both of these spaces, and Dell is following on in what seems to be a halting way --- perhaps in need of just what IBM might be able to provide.

Once the sale takes place, we'll be able to focus more time and energy on its specific influences. For this time, however, while we await the direction dictated by the actual sale, it is at least interesting to contemplate some of the paths that might be taken.

Posted by david.ness
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