PriceSCAN Blog

With "Cash For Clunker’s" End, Lower GPS Prices

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 09:21:48 -0500

In the wake of the conclusion of the government’s “Cash for Clunker’s” auto purchase subsidy program, it appears GPS prices are starting to buckle.
We’ve seen a 7.5% decline in the value of our Automotive GPS – Voice Recognition Index (see our press release). This contrasts with only a 1% decline for the entire month of September. Without federal stimulus, overall demand for vehicles may be reduced, and it’s not unreasonable to hypothesize that this softening may filter through to auto accessories, including GPS.
To be sure, even the recent period of GPS price stability followed dramatic declines earlier in the year. Consider for example the Gamin Nuvi 855, currently the most popular such unit with speech recognition on PriceSCAN. The lowest vendor offered price for this item has fallen some 50%, from about $460 back in mid-February to less than $230 today.
Time Period: 2/16/2009 through 10/19/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

Moving into the holidays, one factor that could be at least somewhat supportive of GPS pricing is higher gasoline prices. If the recent rally in petroleum prices translates into higher gas prices for consumers, the value of GPS may be supported by the devices’ ability to save drivers the fuel that would otherwise be wasted by taking inefficient routes.
At any rate, it’s worth remembering that the higher pump prices go, the more the gift of GPS (and thus of not driving around lost) should be appreciated by those on your shopping list.

A Blu-ray Of Light At End Of Price Decline Tunnel?

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 18:52:45 -0500

Blu-ray player prices are accelerating the pace of their decline as we approach the holiday shopping season, and there seems to be no end in sight.
The PriceSCAN Blu-ray index fell some six percent in the first week of October, by the end of which the total fourth quarter decline came to 12.8% (see our press release). Certainly this is not indicative of a sharp revival of the retail electronics consumer. But as noted here earlier, the prospect of the release of new 3D-capable Blu-ray technology in 2010 may also be depressing demand for the current technology, motivating price cuts by retailers and manufacturers, both for Blu-ray itself (“Getting Them 3-D, Blu-ray Blues”) and for the current generation of television sets (“Mid-Sized LCDs Take Autumnal Equinox As Cue For Price Drop”, “Lower Prices For Smaller Screens”).
To see just how dramatic the decline in Blu-ray pricing has been this year one need look no further than the LG BD390 Network Blu-ray Disc Player, currently the most popular such device on PriceSCAN. Back in late April the lowest vendor price for this item listed on our site was about $400; it’s now offered for less than $280.
Time Period: 4/20/2009 through 10/19/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

With heightening anticipation of new 3D Blu-ray devices the price deterioration in current models may continue through the rest of the year. As such, for those who seek HD but feel 3D is a novelty for which it’s not worth waiting (or paying), some truly striking bargains may come into high definition view, just in time for the holidays.

Mid-Sized LCDs Take Autumnal Equinox As Cue For Price Drop

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 23:14:45 -0500

The week following that of the astronomical start of autumn apparently inspired LCD prices to take action in tribute to the new season and, well, fall.
As noted in our recent press release, last week saw a two percent decline in PriceSCAN’s 46 inch LCD TV-1080p Index, equal to the slide over the prior three weeks of September and just 1% shy of the drop for all of August. We’ve taken note of other recent declines in our flat screen indices (“Lower Prices For Smaller Screens”) and this acceleration in discounting is likely driven by vendors and electronics firms fearful of a second weak holiday shopping season. The coming of more advanced technology in 2010 may also be motivating a markdown in current production and inventory (see “Getting Them 3-D, Blu-ray Blues”)
Interestingly, it seems popularity is moderating price cuts for some models. Consider Sony’s KDL-46XBR9 BRAVIA 1080p, currently not only the most sought-after 46-inch LCD television on PriceSCAN but the most popular television on our site overall. It saw its lowest vendor price on PriceSCAN rise from around $1,500 to just under $1,700 in the first week of October, almost wiping out its September price drop (to be sure, that lowest price is still off about $700 since the beginning of June).
Time Period: 6/1/2009 through 10/5/2009
Each tick mark represents one week

It remains to be seen just how strong a retail season we’ll get in the fourth quarter. But if flat-screen television prices are any indication, it looks like sellers are starting to slash prices in anticipation of purchases they expect to be, shall we say, less than robust.

Lower Prices For Smaller Screens

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 04:46:41 -0500

The last couple of weeks have seen marked declines in the price of mid to small-sized LCD and plasma televisions.
In late August I reported an increase in the price of larger plasma sets (“Sudden Price Spike Demonstrates That, For Plasma Televisions, Size Matters”) but as noted in two recent PriceSCAN press releases, this trend has not translated into price strength for more modest televisons. Indeed, following summer price gains, early September saw a 6.8% decline in the PriceSCAN 40 Inch Plasma TV – 1080p Index. We also witnessed a 3% drop in our LCD TV – 20-29 Inch Index, after three months of relatively stable pricing.
One gets a sense of this looking at the PriceTrend graph of the most popular model of the later diagonal range on this site, Toshiba’s 26AV502R 720p LCD. The lowest vendor price on PriceSCAN for this model has fallen over 10 % since early May..
Time Period: 5/4/2009 through 9/14/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

This price deterioration may reflect consumer caution after a summer increase in confidence (especially for those who are not high-end buyers), and may also be partially driven by retailers marking down mature technologies ahead of the introduction of a new generation of televisions, such as those compatible with 3D Blu-ray (see “Getting Them 3-D, Blu-ray Blues”). In any case, it remains to be seen whether television prices falling with the autumn leaves will be enough to breathe new life into tech retail as we enter the holiday shopping season.

Getting Them 3-D, Blu-ray Blues

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 11:56:12 -0500

Blu-ray prices are plunging, and the market may be anticipating new 3D players and the obsolescence of the current technology.
Blu-ray manufacturers, notably Sony and Panasonic, demonstrated competing 3D technologies last week at the IFA Berlin electronics show, just after the PriceSCAN.com Blu-ray Index took a pronounced dive, as noted in our recent press release. While the firms involved gave some indication that they would address back-compatibility, i.e. 2D playback of 3D disks on the current generation of Blu-ray players, actual 3D playback will be possible only on new players and televisions, with the first 3D Blu-ray products supposedly hitting the market in 2010. That impending revolution puts an expiration date on 2D Blu-ray’s state of the art status, perhaps motivating retailers and manufacturers to preemptively mark down current models.
Back in January 2008 I remarked that, even as Sony’s standard emerged victorious from a bruising battle with Toshiba’s now vanquished HD-DVD, Blu-ray found itself challenged by another disruptive technology, video on demand (see “Will Blu-ray Vanquish HD-DVD, And Will Anybody Care?”). Now, with high-def VOD alternatives available, the disk and stand-alone player model is facing a formidable challenge to achieving lock-in as a consumer standard. Hence the push to 3D.
Just to add to the intrigue, Sony’s new approach uses polarized glasses and the Dolby Real 3D standard you may have experienced at a midnight Harry Potter showing, while Panasonic is using the more rarely deployed active shutter powered glasses, a more costly technology some say produces a better viewing experience. So, just when you thought the format wars were over…
Of course, who’s to say that 3D-HD televisions won’t also be displaying 3D VOD, making the widespread adoption of next-generation Blu-ray disks once again dependent on how VOD providers deal with issues of bandwidth, compatibility of content.
With consumers already hesitant to buy due to their own financial insecurity, it would not be surprising if all this technological uncertainty motivates many to stay on the sidelines and wait for clarity, and that could mean further cuts in both current Blu-ray and television prices as we move into the holiday season.
For more on all this, check out Fox reporter Michelle Buckman’s segment on Blu-ray (featuring my commentary), as well as her story on her very useful consumer blog.

Sudden Price Spike Demonstrates That, For Plasma Televisions, Size Matters

Thu, 20 Aug 2009 15:04:47 -0500

After weeks of price deterioration in the flat screen television market, we’re finally seeing signs of strength in at least one category of these items: very large plasmas.
Last week we saw an eleven percent jump in our PriceSCAN Plasma TV 60+ Inch Index, as noted in our latest press release. This rally is particularly dramatic as it comes in the wake of recent and significant price declines across most of the felt-screen television market, including large models (see “LCD’s Racing Plasmas In Early Summer Price Drop Derby” and “Big Plasmas, Big Price Drops”).
This hike could be due to some increase in demand after significant reductions in production and dealer inventory, compounded perhaps by the withdrawal of several large manufacturers from the plasma market.
To be sure, this price jump seems to be a high-end phenomenon, at least for now. But perhaps increasing confidence among more affluent consumers is evincing itself in some firming of demand for the largest plasmas; if so, this could be a thin ray of light emanating from the end of a very long tunnel.

Voice Recognition GPS Prices Speak To Evaporating "State Of The Art" Premium

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 19:19:44 -0500

When it comes to buying cutting-edge consumer technology, waiting just a little while to buy might save you a fair bit of cash.
As pointed out in our latest press release, last week saw a three percent decline in the PriceSCAN.com Auto GPS – Voice Recognition Index, as compared with a two percent drop in our Auto GPS – Text to Speech Index. So far this year, we’ve seen the spread between these two indices increase from under one point to twenty-eight points.
At the leading edge of automotive GPS, voice recognition seems to be experiencing the sharp discounting of the “state of the art” premium that often occurs early in the life of a new technology. That voice recognition GPS prices are falling faster than those of the more mature text to speech GPS models would be explained by this, though the rapid decline of both may have more to do with flagging consumer demand. As I’ve noted before, this fall is all the more notable given it’s occurring despite higher gas prices, which make GPS more valuable since these units can reduce fuel wasted when lost or taking inefficient routes (“GPS Prices Continue Road Trip South”).
You get a sense of how sharp the GPS price decline has been by considering two models from Garmin, the Nuvi 855 and Nuvi 265WT, right now the most popular voice recognition and text to speech models on this site. The lowest vendor price for the former has dropped from over $450 in mid February to under $250 today.
Time Period: 2/16/2009 through 7/27/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

The latter’s same-period price decline has been more gentle, but it’s still down from around $350 last October to under $220 as of this writing.
Time Period: 10/6/2008 through 7/27/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

So those of you who grew up watching “Night Rider” and longing for the day your car would talk back to you may now find your dream fulfilled for a lot less. Of course, current models may not address you with the requisite level of sarcasm to allow you to channel your inner Hasselhoff; but perhaps you can find a way to get over that disappointment.

Processing Intel Price Declines

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:45:25 -0500

A key line of Intel processors has accelerated a downward price trend begun earlier in the year.
We saw a resumption of significant deterioration in Intel Core 2 Quad pricing back in late April, which I took note of at the time (“Processor Price Drop Striking At Core Of Tech Recovery?”). That erosion has turned out to have been the start of a swoon which calls into question any nascent price stabilization in the processor market, and indeed in the broader computer and consumer high-tech spaces. As noted in our latest press release, last week saw a 4.8% fall in PriceSCAN.com’s Intel Core 2 Quad Index. This adds to a 9.5% drop in the second quarter of 2009, marking a significant pick-up in the pace of decline.
To be sure, there have been some recent signs of processor price strength in other chip lines – see “AMD Quad-Core Prices Rally From Early 2009 Swoon.” But the kind of price cuts we’re seeing in Intel’s Core 2 Quad series cannot help but put downward pressure on competitors’ chips. The winner could be the consumer: if computer manufacturers pass on reduced processor costs, we could see lower systems prices moving forward into the second half. This, combined with pent-up demand, greater economic optimism and the new version of Windows, could spur increased purchases. A bit of buyer relief, if not stimulus, perhaps in time for back to school shopping.

GPS Prices Continue Road Trip South

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 23:14:46 -0500

Automotive GPS prices seem to be charting a course downward.
I took note of the deterioration in automotive GPS prices a couple of times earlier this year, following a New Year’s rally in this market which proved short-lived (“GPS Can't Navigate To Higher Prices”, “Automotive GPS Prices Driven Down”). The southward trend continues, as noted in our recent press release, which highlighted last week’s 2% decline in the PriceSCAN Automotive GPS – Voice Recognition Index, coming hard on the heels of a 9% drop in June.
Indeed, since the beginning of 2009 this index has dropped by nearly a third. Neither the early summer driving season (which early reports have termed anemic) nor somewhat elevated gas prices seem do being doing much to put the breaks on this slide (note higher gas prices may increase GPS value by raising the cost of fuel wasted while lost or taking inefficient routes).
The GPS price collapse is strikingly illustrated by the Gamin Nuvi 885T, as of this writing the most popular automotive GPS with voice recognition unit on PriceSCAN.com. The lowest vendor offered price on our site was north of $740 in mid February, and has since plunged to around $390.

Time Period: 2/16/2009 through 7/13/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

With no anticipation of imminent revolutionary advances in auto GPS to drive prices lower, one has to suspect economic weakness is resulting in soft consumer demand for this technology, particularly in light of weak auto sales. Until we see some strength in retail, it may not be possible for automotive GPS prices to gain traction, let alone step on the gas.

LCD’s Racing Plasmas In Early Summer Price Drop Derby

Sat, 11 Jul 2009 17:23:23 -0500

Comparing LCD and plasma pricing this month has been a little like watching a cliff-diving competition.
On July 2, I commented on a six percent decline in PriceSCAN’s Plasma - 1080p - 50 Inch Index (“Big Plasmas, Big Price Drops”). Not to be outdone, last week our LCD TV – 1080p – 52 Index plunged an even more impressive 9%, as noted in our press release.
The movement of our overall index may have been foreshadowed by eroding prices of some popular models in the last few weeks; consider for example the Samsung LN52B750, currently the most sought-after 52” 1080p LCD set on this site. Vendors were asking at least $2,450 back in late April, from which the lowest offered price on PriceSCAN has fallen to around $2,000, a decline of over 18%
.
Time Period: 4/20/2009 through 7/6/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

As noted previously, with the digital transition behind us, it seems flagging consumer confidence and overall economic weakness are continuing to depress prices in key sectors of the retail high-tech market. Indeed, as recent action in flat screens indicates, some price declines in the consumer electronics space are accelerating.
Look out below.

Big Plasmas, Big Price Drops

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:50:23 -0500

Those looking for economic “green shoots” in retail electronics pricing won’t find them in the market for large plasma televisions.
This week PriceSCAN’s Plasma - 1080p - 50 Inch Index fell 6%, as noted in our press release of earlier today. This decline comes at the end of the first half of 2009, a period which saw a fair amount of stability and even periods of price increases for big plasmas (to be sure, the preceding holiday and post-holiday seasons did feature some sharp plasma price retreats – see “Plasma Prices Taken Down With Holiday Decorations” and “Collapsing Big-Screen Plasma Prices A Valentine’s Gift To Consumers”). This fall comes shortly after deterioration in LCD pricing (”For LCD Sets, Lower Resolution Means Faster Price Drop”) and would seem to throw a bit of cold water on hopes for firmer consumer tech pricing.
In fairness, some 50” 1080p plasmas have been declining in price for weeks, including the most popular one on PriceSCAN, Panasonic’s TC-P50G10 VIERA. The lowest vendor price on this site for this model was at $2,000 the middle of March, but has since dropped about 35% so that it now may be had for less that $1,300.

Time Period: 3/16/2009 through 6/29/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

This recent decline in larger plasma prices may indicate retailers feel compelled to cut prices as consumer confidence fades. Plasma prices are also falling in the wake of the switch to digital transmission, so perhaps some demand associated with the lead-up to that transition has now been removed from the marketplace.

AMD Quad-Core Prices Rally From Early 2009 Swoon

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 19:54:10 -0500

It seems AMD’s Quad-Core line possesses power of both the processing and pricing kinds.
In what might be an indication of some recovery in the processor arena, the PriceSCAN AMD Quad-Core Index has erased much of its seven percent Q1 2009 decline, rallying some 5% in the second quarter (see our press release of earlier today). We’ve taken note of recent signs of price weakness in the processor market (“Processor Price Drop Striking At Core Of Tech Recovery") so the fact that demand is strong enough to allow a bottoming in the pricing of a line of state-of-the-art chips is a welcome development. It may also be that production costs have firmed so as to make further price cuts quite difficult for manufacturers and hence retailers, encouraging an effort to hold the line on pricing. Of course this would be problematic without sufficient support from buyers
To be sure, this is not a complete retracing of the first quarter swan dive, but a reversal of this magnitude does inform against the scenario of precipitous tech deflation. And, in this economy, there are not a lot of players in the tech market complaining of a surfeit of good news.

State Of The Art Digital Camera Prices Show Staying Power

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 18:51:16 -0500

Twelve megapixel digital camera prices have held fairly firm throughout the last few months, in contrast to the markdowns we’ve see for other cutting-edge consumer tech goods.
To elaborate on our press release this week, PriceSCAN’s 12 Megapixel Digital Camera Index dropped only about 1% since October of last year. That compares with about a 20% decline in our 8 Megapixel Digital Camera Index during a comparable, relatively early period in that level of resolution’s life cycle, from October 2005 to May 2006.
Price weakness in state of the art technologies has been a recent theme in the marketplace (see “Processor Price Drop Striking At Core Of Tech Recovery?”, “Sony’s LCD Premium Gets Discounted” and “Automotive GPS Prices Driven Down”). So why the recent out-performance of 12 megapixel cameras?
Perhaps in comparison to the introductory period of 8 megapixel cameras, the retail market anticipates more gradual innovation, supporting early price stability. Additionally, 12 megapixel cameras may have been released with thinner retail margins then in the initial 8 megapixel period, an immediate discount as opposed to one spread over months. And as I noted in our release, maintaining any pricing requires underlying demand, so the introductory-period price stability of these state of the art cameras might be providing a “higher-resolution picture of a small but intriguingly green shoot.”
To get a sense of the firmness of 12 megapixel prices, consider the Canon EOS Digital Rebel XSi with EF-S 18-55mm IS Lens, currently the most popular such camera on our site and one whose early release pre-dates our index by several months. After an initial drop in early 2008, the lowest price offered by vendors on this site has actually rallied from a low of about $525 to around $650 over the last few months.
Time Period: 2/4/2008 through 6/1/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

There are those who fear significant deflation in the consumer tech sector. Perhaps the digital camera market may be giving us an early picture of some hope for the retail electronics market.

For LCD Sets, Lower Resolution Means Faster Price Drop

Thu, 28 May 2009 20:41:36 -0500

We’re seeing a resumption of the decline of LCD television prices, with the fall in 720p prices outstripping that of 1080p sets.
I’ve noted recently that deterioration in LCD pricing has been continuing (see “Sony’s LCD Premium Gets Discounted”) and in a recent press release we highlighted particularly significant drops in the PriceSCAN 40–42 Inch LCD Television 720p and 1080p Indices. In the midst of the recession, LCD demand and any recent inventory drawdown appear insufficient to support even the depressed prices we saw early in the year.
It’s worth taking note of the fact that, while in the first half of May the 1080p index saw a not inconsiderable drop of 3.7%, the 720p index fell almost twice as much, a decline of 7%. The difference may reflect the older vintage’s approaching obsolescence.
Yet even the most advanced and popular sets are hardly immune from severe discounting. One can see this quite clearly by looking at the price action of the Sony KDL-40V4100 BRAVIA V series LCD TV, currently the most sought-after 40-42 inch LCD on PriceSCAN. The lowest price offered by vendors on this site has fallen from about a grand to under $900 in the last few weeks; to put this in perspective, this set went for no less than $1,300 at the end of last April.

Time Period: 4/28/2008 through 5/18/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

As the decline in our higher resolution 1080p index illustrates, when an economy is this week, “state of the art” status only goes so far in insulating a technology from price erosion.

Automotive GPS Prices Driven Down

Mon, 18 May 2009 10:50:36 -0500

We’ve recently seen further deterioration in GPS pricing, continuing a trend begun earlier in the year.
At the end of January I commented on the fizzling of a brief New Year’s rally in GPS prices (“GPS Can't Navigate To Higher Prices”), notably in the PriceSSCAN Automotive GPS with Voice Recognition Index. Now we’re seeing further deterioration in our Automotive GPS – Widescreen with Text to Speech Index. In a press release last week we took note of that measure’s recent 4.9% drop, driving the index to an all-time low.
Indeed, the most popular GPS unit on this site, the Garmin Nuvi 855 (which is a widescreen text to speech model) was going for no less than $460 back in the middle of February, and now may be had for under $310, a drop of nearly a third.

Time Period: 2/16/2009 through 5/11/2009
Each tick mark represents one week
Red = High Price, Blue = Average Price, Green = Low Price

It’s no secret that auto sales are weak, and with the economy sagging it seems a recently stronger oil market has not been sufficient to put a floor under retail GPS prices (GPS units can save drivers money by allowing them to avoid wasting gas as they drive around lost or take unnecessarily long paths to their destinations). With the start of the summer driving season now upon us, we’ll see whether budget-challenged consumers choose to avail themselves of the gas-saving potential of GPS, assuming they can afford the up-front costs of doing so.
Sometimes you have to spend money to save it.